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CDC Gaming: Inside the latest prediction market developments

Saturday, September 5, 2026 12:10 PM
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Mike Dreitzer, chairman of the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB), made it clear that the agency’s opposition to prediction markets offering sports event contracts in the state has been consistent and is about proper regulation.

“It’s about telling the truth and protecting consumers,” Dreitzer said. “In this process, we have built a system that fully and thoroughly addresses core principles, including licensing, suitability, responsible gaming, anti-money laundering, taxation, integrity, and underage gambling, meaning those under 21.”

Last week, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in San Francisco ruled unanimously that it disagreed with Kalshi’s overly broad reading that the Commodity Exchange Act allows it to offer sports event contracts.

The court also determined that U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon did not abuse his discretion when he changed his opinion and allowed the NGCB to ban the unlicensed prediction market from offering sports event contracts in Nevada.

Dreitzer supported the court’s position, saying a product that is, in substance, a sports wager can’t avoid state gaming laws simply by being called an event contract.

“The simple fact is, anytime you risk money on the uncertain outcome of a sporting event, that’s a bet. End of story,” Dreitzer said Wednesday at the outset of the Control Board’s monthly meeting held in Carson City.

“The court also noted the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is not a national gambling regulator,” the chairman said.

Beyond the legal issues, Dreitzer said important policy questions needed to be addressed. He added that strong regulation and consumer protection were two of those policies.

“Consumer protection must remain at the center of our work,” Dreitzer said. “Anyone betting on a game should understand the rules and the fees, know who’s on the other side of the transaction, be sure they are getting a fair and transparent bet, and know where to turn if something goes wrong.”

Dreitzer also said he was “deeply concerned” about 18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds who gamble on sports on these sites, noting that losses at that age may come out of tuition, rent, books, and other necessities.

“We should be especially careful when gambling is presented as investing, because it is not investing,” he said. “Betting on tonight’s game is not investing for the future.”

Dreitzer said the Ninth Circuit ruling was “an important milestone, yet the fight continues. Nevada has taken on this fight from day one. In doing so, we have refused to normalize this illegal conduct in any way.

This so-called loophole to allow sports betting in all 50 states is unserious, it’s dangerous, it’s wrong, it hurts people, and no amount of spin, doctoring, or gaslighting will ever make it right.”

Tribes support New Jersey’s SCOTUS case

Gaming tribes are coming together to sign an amicus brief in support of New Jersey’s effort to have the U.S. Supreme Court overturn an appeals court decision that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are regulated by the CFTC, said Rebecca George, executive director of the Washington Indian Gaming Association.

George told CDC Gaming that she’s been closely monitoring the growth of prediction markets and their legal issues since January 2025, added that gambling is the biggest source of revenue for tribes in Washington and other states.

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“Any money they are making are coming off the backs of tribes,” George said. “We haven’t had this kind of attack on states and tribes ever. It will land in the Supreme Court.”

A King County judge ruled last month that Kalshi had to stop offering event contracts for sports, entertainment, elections, culture, and mention markets, as well as end advertising in Washington.

George described the rapid growth of prediction markets as an attack on their regulatory system that is extremely “frustrating to tribes.” She said that the Cabazon decision in 1987, which recognized tribal sovereignty over gambling on their own lands, still stands.

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The decision prompted Congress to pass the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act of 1988, which set up a federal framework for regulating tribal gaming and gave states the right to negotiate gaming compacts with tribes.

“Gambling is a states’ rights issue,” George said.

When asked about revenue losses from prediction markets, George said it would be very hard to quantify losses to tribes or the state lottery. She stressed that there are only so many gambling dollars to go around and anything that these platforms have built have had an impact, because they have been relabeled as a gambling product.

Kalshi fines and suspends three political candidates

Kalshi has disclosed three political candidates purchased contracts tied to their own races in California, North Carolina, and Maine.

The prediction market company fined Stephen Cloobeck, a billionaire developer and former 2026 Republican candidate for California governor, $31,770 for purchasing event contracts related to his own abandoned political race.

Kalshi found that Cloobeck purchased approximately $10,000 worth of contracts, which violated the platform’s rules against politicians wagering on their own campaigns. Cloobeck, who was suspended from the platform for three years, fully cooperated with the internal investigation.

In North Carolina, Republican Laurie Buckhout purchased fewer than $1,000 in contracts tied to her candidacy for the U.S. House of Representatives. Kalshi imposed a $2,589.96 penalty and suspended her for three years.

Buckhout said she was unaware her actions violated the rules.

“I bet on myself. Literally. It was a dumb mistake,” Buckhout told NC Newsline. “As soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right. Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.”

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Maine gubernatorial candidate Ben Midgley also purchased fewer than $1,000 in contracts related to his own candidacy. Midgley, who finished second in the Republican gubernatorial primary, received a three-year suspension and a $5,430.30 penalty.

Midgley told the Associated Press that he wasn’t aware candidates could not support themselves on Kalshi. He described the platform as “a novelty and entertainment source.”

Both Buckhout and Midgley cooperated with Kalshi’s investigations and agreed to resolve the cases.

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Chris Sieroty — Managing Editor

Chris Sieroty joined CDC Gaming as Managing Editor in August 2026. He drives the daily editorial agenda and coordinates journalists and contributors across North America. He spent nearly a decade as US Editor for Vixio Regulatory Intelligence in Washington, D.C., and previously covered the Nevada gaming industry for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Nevada Public Radio (KNPR).