The legal battle surrounding prediction market operator Kalshi is increasingly on a path toward the Supreme Court of the United States, with legal experts and historical precedent increasingly pointing to a likely resolution by June 2027.
At issue is whether event-based contracts tied to sports outcomes fall under federal derivatives law or are subject to state and tribal gaming regulation. That question, seemingly set to produce divergent rulings across federal courts, is the type of high-stakes statutory and federalism conflict the Supreme Court has consistently stepped in to resolve.
A pivotal development came with a ruling from the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, which found Kalshi’s contracts qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act.
