Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Macquarie’s Chad Beynon on October 7 looked at third-quarter prospects:
“Despite macro concerns (inflation/gas prices) as well as prediction market impacts, we remain positive heading into 3Q prints, particularly with gaming stocks down 12/22% in the last month/quarter as median ’26/27 revisions were flat while multiples fell 0.5x. G2E meetings and public data confirm our view that the industry remains resilient.
“We expect 3Q commentary to be cautiously optimistic and view it as a positive catalyst for the group. Ahead of 3Q prints, we’ve adjusted all gaming models to include the following: higher rates/discount rates in targets, FX (stronger USD), reduced 3Q Vegas (seasonality), reduced 3Q Macau (offshore tax impact), Brazil iGaming impact, mixed regional minor changes (company specific), higher 3Q prediction market investments (Flutter/ DraftKings), slightly lower 3Q hold (strong July from World Cup, mixed start of English Premier League, Champions League and NFL).”
J. P. Morgan’s Dan Politzer on October 11 looked at August trends in digital gaming:
“August sportsbook handle reverted back to its recent cadence of -1% year-over-year, more/less consistent with January-May levels (i.e., ex-World Cup). Initial checks of September handle growth appear mixed, though we note there was one fewer week of NFL games year-over-year in September 2026; September Iowa handle is flat year-over-year, West Virginia is -1%, District of Columbia is +6%, and Maine is -3%; New York weekly data suggests handle up ~4% year-over-year.
“iGaming GGR growth decelerated further in August to +12% year-over-year (vs. +20%/+16% in June/July). Looking ahead, September West Virginia iGaming GGR was +15% year-over-year (vs. +27/23% in June/July), though we note West Virginia data can be choppy.
“September’s s NFL-driven ramp appears similar for prediction markets and OSB, with Kalshi’s sports volume, +63% month-over-month vs. +50-55% month-over-month historically for OSB.”
David Bain of Texas Capital Securities on October 12 looked at third-quarter prospects:
“We believe the gaming sector is oversold. However, a group-wide sentiment inflection seems more likely ‘out of 3Q earnings’ than into them. While investor skepticism of consumer strength bleeds past 3Q reports, 4Q consensus estimate framework improves, in our view, and combines with sector valuations at or near all-time lows. Overall, we anticipate more sector position building than selling following 3Q reports.”
David Katz of Jefferies on October 10 looked at Churchill Downs:
“Mike Repole disclosed a 1-million-share stake, or approximately 1.5% of the company, citing the underappreciated value of the Kentucky Derby franchise and opportunities to drive growth, innovation, and shareholder value creation. Separately, the release of 2027 Derby tickets highlighted continued pricing power and premiumization, with modest year-over-year price increases (~3-20%, depending on section), expanded hospitality offerings, and greater price segmentation across seating categories. Taken together, we believe the combination of an engaged new shareholder, ongoing premium inventory expansion, and increasingly sophisticated revenue optimization supports the long-term earnings growth story and underscores the value embedded within Churchill Downs’ unique asset base.”
