Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas looked at Churchill Downs on July 30:
“Management laid out its growth outlook for Derby 2027 (and 2028) despite the tougher comps and temporary structures coming online. M&A was also a hot topic headlined by the exploration of a regional property sale as well as the United Tote acquisition. We wonder if part of today’s sell-off was investor expectations for a full regional sale vs. just a formal announcement – but management hopes to execute a sale in the “coming months.” Net net, fundamentals look good here (at worst stable), and valuation is extremely undemanding. We roll through the beat but keep our 2026/2027 estimate the same and reiterate our Buy rating.”
Texas Capital Securities’ David Bain examined MGM Resort International’s second quarter on July 30:
“Following a 2% EBITDAR miss versus consensus estimates, we lower 2026E/2027E EBITDA 2%/1%. We lower our price target to $54 from $56 based on our new forecast, though we believe MGM will trade largely around events related to People Inc.’s $48.30 offer to buy the company (which adds a stock price floor, in our view). As expected, MGM did not provide additional significant information surrounding the offer, though we continue to believe a deal could be made at a slightly higher price than People Inc.’s initial offer.”
David Katz of Jefferies looked at Sportradar’s 2026 second-quarter results on August 3:
“2Q26 revenue and EBITDA each grew +19% year-over-year, though results were modestly impacted by a €9 million FX loss versus a €54 million gain in the prior-year period. While underlying trends remain solid, the miss vs. consensus and larger downside guidance revision is likely to pressure shares near term. Increased IMG Arena monetization and new prediction partners represent incremental growth opportunities, though the earnings impact/benefit remains difficult to quantify at this stage.”
Dan Politzer of J.P. Morgan wrote about July revenue in Macau August 2:
“Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported July GGR of MOP 20.3 billion, -8% year-over-year and pacing at 83% of 2019 levels, an improvement from June’s 78%, but below January-May’s 85-90%,” Politzer wrote August 2. “July’s 8% year-over-year was in line with expectations, but we note these expectations drifted lower over the course of the month on uninspiring World Cup demand channel checks, and then more recently, Typhoon Noul. With MGM’s recent commentary pointing to a surge in post-World Cup demand to 1Q levels and a strong event calendar, we think July’s monthly GGR report will likely matter less than usual, as investors will likely be more focused on weekly channel checks to gauge the pace of any demand recovery.”
