Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas on September 18 looked at Las Vegas’ fourth quarter:
“Quarter 4 is a seesaw so far with a solid October followed by our first look at what’s a soft November. MGM/Caesars November rates are underperforming, but Wynn is meaningfully outperforming – likely boosted by a strong F1 at the high end. Rising fuel prices remain a market risk though Las Vegas visitation has been stable year-to-date. On the M&A front, Caesars’ deal is progressing, but it’s been quiet on the MGM front with shares pulling back (though we could hear something early October). We’ll have more on Vegas (and overall gaming) trends at G2E, where we are hosting meetings September 28-30.”
Dan Politzer of J.P. Morgan on September 19 viewed online sports betting in New York:
“Based on online sports betting data released by the New York Gaming Commission for the week ending Sunday, September 13, 2026, GGR was -70% year-over-year and handle was +11% year-over-year, implying a very customer friendly 2.9% hold rate (-780 basis points year-over-year vs. the previous year’s comparable period). For 3QTD (through 9/13/26), OSB GGR is tracking +5% year-over-year, and handle is tracking +5% year-over-year, with a hold of 9.5% (flat year-over-year). We note the period includes NFL Week 1 this year vs. NFL Week 2 last year, as well as the U.S. Open Finals (which were a week later this year). This dynamic likely benefitted handle growth but impacted hold as many NFL favorites/overs and popular player props won, and for New York in particular, the Giants and Jets both won their games.”
David Bain of Texas Capital Securities on September 14 looked at Inspired Entertainment:
“We believe Inspired Entertainment’s recent stock decline leaves it significantly undervalued. While stock price disruption can be traced to a potential UK retail gaming tax increase, anecdotal reports about early tax loss selling and other non-earnings-related issues have been cited by investors. The above combination may have created a ‘selling begets selling’ stock scenario, in our view. We calculate an even draconian outcome from any potential UK retail tax increase (doubling of existing duty) would still leave shares trading under 4x CY27E EV/EBITDA and at a 25% free cash flow yield. Further, we believe a low-case gaming category tax result still leaves solid 2027E EBITDA growth, year-over-year net free-cash-flow expansion, a higher (accelerated) mix of US and digital, and net debt reduction to ~2x. We reiterate our buy rating.”
David Katz of Jefferies on September 20 wrote about Churchill Downs:
“We expect investor interest to be high in Churchill Downs, given the recent debates around the shares, including 1) The Kentucky Derby’s prospects for 2027 given the disappointing 2026, 2) Timing and magnitude on regional gaming asset sales, which have progressed inconsistently over the past 12-15 months, 3) Increasing competition in Virginia given the considerable investment, 4) Capital deployment strategies for the Derby, New Hampshire and Virginia in the context of deleveraging.”
