Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
MGM Resorts outlook
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities on October 30 weighed in on MGM Resorts after the operator held its earnings call last week.
“MGM reported a -2% EBITDAR miss to the Street on Strip weakness with some offset by Macau/Regionals,” Jonas wrote. “Despite softer Vegas demand, management continues to see high-end resilience and stabilization coming in Q4 to growth in 2026. We lower 2025E/26E EBITDAR (-1%/-2%) mostly on lower Vegas estimates (-2%/-3% for 2025E/26E). Price target moves to $47 (from $48). Despite the hits from Vegas, we think MGM’s diversification (Regionals, Macau, Digital) offers the stock support while we could see material upside should Vegas inflect.”
Las Vegas Strip losses in September
Macquarie’s Chad Beynon examined the Las Vegas Strip in an October 31 note.
“The Vegas Strip generated monthly revenue of $688 million in September (-5% year-over-year), owing mostly to very low baccarat hold of just 8% (vs 17% last September), while baccarat drop and slot handle were +15% year-over-year and +13% year-over-year, respectively,” Beynon wrote. “Slot revenues increased 3%, while table revenues were -17% year-over-year. We assume the strong volumes were the result of Labor Day timing. September’s results affected 3Q25 Strip GGR growth of +2% year-over-year versus what was an easy 3Q24 baccarat hold comp in July/August. This compares to same-store US regional GGR growth of +0% year-over-year in September and +2% year-over-year for 3Q25. Following September’s results, we are leaving our Strip forecast for the remainder of the year unchanged at +1% year-over-year in 4Q25E.”
VICI Properties results positive
David Katz of Jefferies on October 30 commented on VICI Properties’ third-quarter results of $1 billion, slightly better than Jefferies and the Street’s projection of $999 million.
“The slightly better-than-expected results coupled with the slight guidance raise should be modest positives for the shares,” Katz wrote. “More importantly, we expect management to provide updates on incremental growth opportunities, as well as perspectives on its existing portfolio of leases. Generally speaking, we view the results as less significant for the stock than the commentary.”
Caesars third quarter
On October 29, David Bain of Texas Capital Securities wrote about Caesars’ third quarter results, noting that “Adjusted EBITDAR of $884 million compared to our/consensus $894 million/$947 million. However, Caesars noted $43 million of negative hold (“luck factor”). While investors have historically normalized for hold and 3Q estimates were stale into the print, in our view, we believe the headline miss will need to be digested, particularly given recently soft Las Vegas leisure demand trends and lower digital sector sentiment. We have little change to our recently reduced 2026E EBITDAR forecast (~1.5% below consensus pre-3Q print), though believe the Street moves closer toward our estimates. We remain Buy rated.”
