Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Josh Nichols of B Riley Associates on October 29 viewed Genius Sports:
“Buy-rated Genius Sports reports 3Q results on November 5. We expect the third quarter to kick off the seasonally strong second half by validating that Legend accretive and free cash flow is inflecting, setting the stock up for a potential re-rating. We model revenue of $260 million (+56.3% year-over-year) and EBITDA of $85 million at a 32.7% margin (+1,230 basis points year-over-year), matching guidance and in line with consensus of $261 million/$85 million, in the company’s first full quarter with Legend.”
David Katz of Jefferies on November 1 looked at Churchill Downs and Rush Street:
“Investors in Churchill Downs are solely focused on the regional asset sale process, specifically on blended valuation across the portfolio and net proceeds. We believe expectations are for a blended multiple which approximates 7X EBITDA, with a potentially wide dispersion. More important perhaps is our impression that the tax offset could be moderate to benign, which would leave upside to proceeds expectations and would therefore be positive. In short, we do not expect much else to matter for the stock between now and year-end by when the deals are to be announced.
“Regarding Rush Street, investor focus remains on whether 2027 estimates are conservative enough. We believe ours are, albeit at the lower end of updated estimates. Further, the proposal by the Colombian congress for a 19% value-added tax on online gaming deposits could have a further impact to 2027 estimates. Note that the proposal would have to progress through the legislative process for the remainder of the year and may or may not pass.”
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas on October 30 examined Gaming and Leisure Properties:
“Quarter 3 adjusted funds from operations beat us/Street by +1% driving a modest guidance update. Management also detailed its most recent partnership with Prologis – demonstrating its creativity in generating cashflow from its assets. The pipeline remains robust along with plenty of regional M&A activity positioning GLPI to capitalize on the right opportunity. We take our estimates to the high end of the updated range given GLPI’s growth outlook and stability of cash flows. Reiterate Buy.”
David Bain of Texas Capital Securities on November 2 looked at Macau:
“Macau’s October Gross Gaming Revenue declined 10% year-over-year, tracking below mid-month consensus expectations but in-line with revised late-month tracking models. Results confirm that late-3Q26 headwinds have officially bled into 4Q26. While high-level October visitation volumes proved robust, spend-per-visitor metrics remain structurally soft across both premium-mass and core-mass segments, in our view. Although the October print provides little near-term inspiration — and introduces at least some downside risk to consensus forecasts — we believe current Macau stock valuations already discount significant headwinds. At current trading multiples, the sector’s resilient baseline cash flow and long-term earnings power are largely ignored by the market.”
