Jefferies Equity Research analyst Kai Erman believes investors seem broadly comfortable with iGaming momentum continuing at Light & Wonder, according to a research note published Monday.
However, two investor concerns voiced by the Erman were whether gambling revenues would speed up again and the degree of drag on Light & Wonder posed by its SciPlay social-casino unit. Erman allowed that there was some uncertainty surrounding SciPlay but that it was unlikely to be more of an impediment in 2027 than it was in 2026.
Erman said that it was apt that SciPlay should be a central concern. He added that 6% revenue growth for SciPlay looked optimistic compared to Light & Wonder’s own prediction that it would trail the broader market’s growth rate.
Leadership’s moves to turn SciPlay around, Erman continued, might take as much as a year to effectuate. In the meantime, management “expects to provide more detail to the market in coming months which should help investors frame the direction of SciPlay.”
The analyst was more upbeat about other facets of the Light & Wonder story. He said that even with arch rival Aristocrat Leisure broadening its iGaming efforts Light & Wonder’s market share “remains robust.”
Not only was Ultimate Fire Link the number-three iGaming product online, Erman said, additional growth could come from a new Florida opportunity. That would be the chance for players to wager online on previously run auto races, similar to what is done with historical-horse-racing terminals.
Turning to terrestrial gaming operations, Erman anticipated not only 2,500 premium-game installations for 2026, he also forecast that Light & Wonder executives would predict at least 2,000 more across 2027. The infusion of key Light & Wonder game titles into Grover Gaming’s offerings was thought to further drive market share.
Erman predicted 900 Grover Gaming installations in 2027, “driven by organic share from roll-out of casino titles and entry into Maryland.” Possible market openings in Alaska and New York State could increase the upside and sales further, he wrote.
Sell-through transactions were also expected to be better in the coming year, driven in part by enthusiasm for Light & Wonder’s slot cabinets. An improved replacement cycle, as well as more-robust casino openings were thought to be additional drivers of growth.
As for 2027, Erman said, it was probably going to be incrementally better than 2026 was for both Aristocrat and Light & Wonder. The current year, he explained, had been characterized by limited new markets and expansion opportunities.
The Jefferies analyst also forecast a sharp increase in international sales, propelled by increased market share in Australia and New Zealand.
“Recent channel checks indicate much better performance from new titles supporting operator investment in the Cosmic Dual cabinet,” he elaborated.
