With more than 80 million viewers tuning in to Monday’s presidential debate and just 41 days remaining until the election, the prospects of either a Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump presidency have left the country on edge.
But the elephant-in-the-room question of whether Clinton or Trump would be ultimately better for casinos remains a toss-up, concluded a panel of political experts at the Global Gaming Expo Tuesday morning.
“We have to realize that we have nominated the two worst possible candidates on either side, and the American people have to deal with that,” said Kirk Blalock, a Washington-based Republican operative. “If Republicans had nominated anyone else they would be 10 or 15 points ahead of (Clinton) right now. Marco Rubio would be well ahead of her at this point.”
While casino gaming is not high on the priority list of either candidate, the bigger-picture issues being debated, including immigration, tax reform, infrastructure, health care, and economic policy, will factor heavily into the casino industry’s growth prospects for years to come.
Whit Askew, the American Gaming Association’s top lobbyist, noted that while it might sound cliché, this election could truly be the most consequential of our lifetimes.
“From my perspective, and on behalf of the gaming industry and the AGA, it’s clear to us that the next president, his or her administration, the Congress, governors and state legislators will absolutely impact gaming’s longevity and its environment for growth, opportunity and job creation for decades to come,” he said. “It’s cliché, but the fact is it’s true.”
The panel emphasized that other key themes to watch for in November will be not just who assumes the presidency, but also which party ends up with control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Republicans are a virtual lock to hold onto the House, while the Senate is widely seen as a toss-up that will likely go the way of the presidency.
That creates two realistic scenarios: President Hillary Clinton will be checked by a divided Congress, or President Trump will be checked by a Republican Congress that largely dislikes him.
“The challenge for Hillary Clinton is ‘what can I do in a divided government?’” said Steve Elmendorf, a three-decade Democratic operative who is also a prominent surrogate for the Clinton campaign.
Elmendorf suggested that Hillary might be able to work out a compromise with moderate Republicans in Congress on key gaming issues.
He highlighted a possible corporate tax reform deal to raise funds for new infrastructure projects as potential low-hanging fruit. “Infrastructure, I argue, is very important for (the gaming) industry because you’re moving a lot of people to a lot of places,” he said. “I think that’s a doable negotiation that both parties could have.”
Immigration reform – another key issue because of gaming’s employment base – would also be a key issue on Hillary’s agenda, he argued. “I think Hillary’s going to die trying on comprehensive immigration reform.”
Blalock, a reluctant Trump supporter, said that a Trump presidency could be a net positive for the broader business community because of his opposition to regulatory creep. “(Trump) does know one thing – that regulations are crushing business.”
“One of the most lasting impacts of the Obama administration will have been the regulations that have been put forward,” he said. “If you listened to Donald Trump last night – one of the things he was very clear on was regulation. I think he’ll push the envelope to repeal as many regulations as he can.”
With respect to gaming, Askew noted that the make-up of Congress has generally moved toward a more positive view of casino gaming, as most of the hardline opponents retire, are defeated or move on to other issues. That trend figures to continue as public perception of the industry continues to improve.
Steven Light, a political scientist at the University of North Dakota, said that new appointments and approaches at the Department of the Interior and the Bureau of Indian Affairs could impact Indian gaming and tribal land usage.
Blalock offered a summation of the prevailing sentiment that has gripped the U.S. this election season. “I think the American people in general are dissatisfied with how Washington is working and want a change,” he said. “Donald Trump, be it good or bad, represents that change. He is the agent of change, the outsider.”
