Despite consumer sentiment at record lows, a UNLV economist projects a rebound in tourism in 2026 with two million more visitors to Las Vegas this year than last.
Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business & Economic Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, told the Nevada Society of CPAs that the center is forecasting 40.5 million visitors in 2026, up from 38.5 million a year ago, a 5% increase. Despite the improvement, that would still be below the 41.6 million in 2024 and 40.8 million in 2023. The record is 42.9 million in 2016.
There’s a way to go, however, before Las Vegas reaches that number; so far through April, visitation is down two-tenths of one percent after a nearly 2% year-over-year dip in April.
The good news is that Wall Street analysts tracking hotel bookings said they expect a strong May when those numbers are released and June and July are tracking well so far.
Some of the positive news about Las Vegas visitation is that convention attendance is up 10% or nearly 250,000 more attendees than a year ago. And though air passenger traffic is down, especially after the shuttering of Spirit Airlines, drive-in traffic from southern California is up nearly 3%, despite higher gas prices. Californians account for about 30% of Las Vegas’ visitors.
“We forecast that things will rebound a little bit better this year,” Woods said. “We’ve already seen this strong presence in the first quarter with conventions. The key will be summer travel. The question is whether the discretionary consumer comes back. We’re not having the issue with the repeat visitor. Ninety percent of the people who came here last year were repeat visitors. We’re having trouble with persuading infrequent or first-time visitors to come to Vegas — that it’s affordable, especially if they aren’t making that decision a year in advance or a month in advance but a couple of days in advance,” Woods said. “But things will rebound a bit, given business travel and the repeat visitor have been strong and the K-shaped higher income continue to come and spend.”
Woods said private jets at Reid International are up 5% for the first quarter. About 48% percent of 2025 Las Vegas visitors were making more than $140,000 a year.
“In a household making $140,000 a year, it may not feel like you’re part of the upper echelon, but compared to the rest of the economy, you are,” Woods said. “It’s clear people in that bracket continue to come to Las Vegas and are a lot less sensitive to the price increases. Even Walmart is claiming they’re getting more business from the top 10% income bracket.”
Woods talked about the economy, consumer sentiment being at record lows, and the perception of Las Vegas as overpriced, which has prompted many resorts to offer deals.
Woods said Disney is doing well, which shows the need for operators in Las Vegas to “keep their ear on the ground where consumers are. We’re a volume business as much as a high-income business. Disney found a pricing strategy that makes a lot of money, but hasn’t upset consumers to the point they stop coming. We have to figure out how we can repeat that here in Vegas.”
Woods said the loss of Spirit Airlines has had an impact on Las Vegas visitation and Canadian travel has been a problem.
“Our international travel is down (14.6% so far in 2026) and a lot of Canadians are mad. Their travel was down 30% in the first quarter and 17% last year. If we didn’t have that, international travel would actually be positive. International travel from Europe and Asia is up to Las Vegas, which is good news, but at the same time we’re not making up with the Canadians.”
Woods said professional sports teams present an opportunity for more economic development. The Aces are the champions of the WNBA, the Golden Knights are playing for the Stanley Cup this year, and the Raiders draw fans from across the country to Allegiant Stadium.
Woods cautioned about looking at gaming numbers only and what they mean for the health of the casino industry. He cited a new report from the American Gaming Association that showed commercial gaming revenue in the U.S. in 2025 was $78.6 billion, an increase of 9.1%.
In southern Nevada, casinos reported $13.6 billion in gaming revenue in 2026, and Woods said the center is forecasting $14 billion in 2026, a growth of 2.3%.
“Here’s my caveat with gaming numbers,” Woods said. “We’ve seen record numbers of gaming revenue, but as I like to tell the press, we’ve also seen record inflation. It’s gone up 25% since the pandemic. Costs have gone up for operators and businesses. We need to take that into account when we talk headline numbers. The economy has held up and people are still gambling, but their habits are changing. They’re not necessarily coming to the physical property. They’re gambling on their phones and online and you have a lot of disruption from the prediction markets. Keeping in mind inflation, is it real growth or just growth on a headline basis?”
