Why prediction markets might be skipping the Kentucky Derby

Thursday, April 30, 2026 8:56 PM
Photo: Churchill Downs Winn...hoto by SeeMidTN.com (aka Brent) shared under a Creative Commons (BY-NC) license
  • Tom Schad, ESPN

Leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have enabled their users to bet on just about everything over the past year — from the outcomes of political races and daily temperatures in U.S. cities to the winners of sporting events.

When it comes to the 2026 Kentucky Derby, though, it appears they are bowing out.

As of Thursday morning, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had listed a market for the winner of Saturday’s Derby in Louisville, which is both the most prestigious annual event in its sport and a marquee date on the sports betting calendar. A Kalshi spokesperson declined comment when asked if the company planned to accept trades on the Kentucky Derby.