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Prediction markets should be taxed as gambling, academic paper says

Thursday, September 10, 2026 12:51 PM
Photo: Shutterstock
  • Jeff Edelstein, InGame

If it’s a day ending in “Y,” there’s going to be discussion of whether prediction market profits should be taxed as investments or taxed as gambling.

in a new paper in the George Washington Law Review titled “Betting on Tomorrow: Prediction Markets and the Tax Treatment of Event Contracts,” Mirit Eyal, a law professor at the University of Alabama, and Jay Soled, a taxation professor at Rutgers Business School, assert that the vast majority of trades on prediction markets — sports or otherwise — should be treated as gambling.