Kalshi’s market makers made big profits at takers’ expense during last week’s midterm elections, according to an InGame analysis, with two Texas statewide races among the biggest wins for market makers and losses for takers. Millions more went in market makers’ direction on markets for House and Senate control, as well as Senate elections in Michigan and Maine.
The successful performance for market makers, at the expense of takers, may be a datapoint in the debates over the performances of prediction markets and models during the midterms.
While prediction markets had a significant amount of success in forecasting races, it was market makers who had the most success in doing so, while the typical Kalshi users may not have been so predictive.
Takers lost $44.6 million after fees, while market makers made $34.9 million in profit, across all midterm markets.
