Citigroup analysts are forecasting a 7% year-on-year decline in Macau’s 2Q26 industry EBITDA ahead of the upcoming results season, citing the impact of the football World Cup and “extremely unfavorable hold rates. ”
Describing Q2 as “arguably Macau’s toughest quarter since reopening,” analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said their anticipated US$1.92 billion in industrywide EBITDA would be the lowest level since 3Q24, reflecting GGR of MOP$61.0 billion which was the lowest since 1Q25.
Industry EBITDA margin is seen falling by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to around 25.8% – mainly reflecting the operating deleverage from the lower- than-theoretical VIP hold.
