The gaming industry will get its first in-depth analysis of the Las Vegas scene Thursday afternoon when Boyd Gaming is the first to announce its fourth-quarter results and provide a glimpse into 2026.
The earnings call with Wall Street investors follows MGM Resorts International announcing Wednesday in a release that it beat EBITDAR expectations by 4%, including a 4% beat in Las Vegas and 15% beat in Macau. Regional gaming fell short with EBITDAR 1% below expectations. MGM’s earnings call is on Feb. 11.
Casinos that serve Las Vegas locals have fared better than the Strip, where gaming revenue was flat in 2025. Revenue for off-Strip and non-downtown casinos in December rose nearly 6%. Before the MGM announcement, Bank of America said its fourth-quarter estimates are a weighted average -1% below the Street.
Yahoo Finance said Boyd Gaming’s fourth-quarter revenues “are likely to have been supported by continued strength in its core customer base and improving trends among retail players, which management noted carried over from the third quarter into October.” It also said gaming volumes are likely to have benefited from steady visitation across Las Vegas locals and Midwest and South properties, “where disciplined marketing and efficient operations helped convert demand into revenues.”
Boyd Gaming CEO Keith Smith, without giving away anything for Thursday’s earning release, sounded a bullish note last week when he spoke before the Vegas Metro Chamber and said he has tremendous confidence in Las Vegas.
“There’s no question that visitation to Las Vegas is down and it’s not anything we haven’t seen before,” Smith said. “We tend to make more out of it than it is. Is it concerning? Sure. But this has happened to us before and it’s not the end of the world. It will come back. There is a core demand for Las Vegas. People are still spending money and Las Vegas will continue to rebound over the course of time. I’m confident in the long-term future. This is just a dip. We’ll get through it and to the other side.”
In a note to investors from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America, the firm said it expects locals casinos, including Boyd and Red Rock Resorts, will be 2% above Wall Street estimates, with data suggesting solid locals trends have continued. Bank of America as put a $100 price outlook for Boyd, based on seven times 2026 EBITDAR. The stock closed Wednesday at $84.78, up from a 52-week low of $58.94.
Kelley said risks to the upside for Boyd include continued margin improvement, balance-sheet deleverage quicker than anticipated, a significantly deleveraging acquisition or transaction, and sports betting upside.
Risks to the downside are continued impacts of COVID and a broader economic slowdown, slower-than-anticipated deleverage, and execution on integration from recent transactions.
Red Rock Resorts will release its results next week and Bank of America projects its price outlook of $65. It was $63.96 on Wednesday, up from a 52-week low of $35.09.
Kelley said the price outlook is based on 11 times 2026 EBITDA and that the multiple is appropriate, given Red Rock Resort’s strong development.
Risks to the downside are revenue comps, which are tough, as Las Vegas locals meaningfully outperformed the broader U.S. with gaming revenue +25% above pre-COVID levels, Kelley said. In addition, Red Rock has higher fixed operating leverage than peers, owing to a lower gaming tax rate. Following a special dividend, incremental cash flow will be targeted at its Durango expansion project, and wage and cost inflation, as well as competition from the Strip, are possible, he said.
Risks to the upside include record margins (highest among regionals) and cash flows, an attractive balance sheet and leverage profile, less of a drag from the Palms and closed properties; RRR also owns 100% of its real estate, providing substantial security and flexibility for borrowing, Kelley said.
Wynn Resorts also reports its earnings, followed by Caesars Entertainment the following week.
Bank of America has a $150 price outlook for Wynn Resorts based on 11 times their 2027 EBITDAR estimate, plus the value of its UAE development. The multiple is roughly in line with its long-term average, justified given strength in Las Vegas and stable regional trends, Kelley said.
Downside risks include Macau impacts on Las Vegas, uncertainty in Macau, and UAE execution risk.
Kelley put a $26 price outlook for Caesars, up from the $21.85 at the close on Wednesday. It’s based on seven times 2026 EBITDAR, a multiple slightly below Caesars’s long-term historical average and mid-cycle multiple.
Risks to the upside mainly revolve around management’s ability to significantly exceed its forecast, which could come from de-levering, late-cycle growth in Las Vegas, digital gaming share gains, opportunistic asset and land sales, joint venture or licensing deals.
Risks to the downside stem from high financial and operating leverage, lack of meaningful growth in digital market share, and potential margin deterioration.
