With two reporting months waiting to be counted, Reno-based gaming analyst and consultant Ken Adams is projecting 2018 to be “another good year” for the casino industry. He expects 2019 will continue the trend.
The optimism stems from additional casino expansion, the growth of video lottery terminals, and increased sports betting following along for another 12 months.
In October, gaming revenues nationwide grew 5.46 percent to more than $3.57 billion in the 21 states charted by Adams for the Adams Revenue Revue. For the first 10 months of the year, combined casino and VLT revenue is up 3.4 percent to $35.4 billion.
Through October, sports betting went live in four states beyond Nevada. Two more states added the activity in November and December. Meanwhile, new casinos opened in Massachusetts and Atlantic City in 2018.
Next year, Adams said, casino expansion and new gaming options could be developed in five states – Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia and Virginia – while Illinois, which had 30,735 VLTs at the end of November, is expected to see another increase in VLT numbers.
“If I were a betting man, I would lay odds that revenue growth will continue all the way through 2020, providing we are not hit with a recession,” Adams wrote in the report he produces for CDC Gaming. “But watching the swings of stocks on Wall Street can still make a person very nervous.”
During October, six starts followed by Adams had revenue declines, the largest being Delaware with a 16.3 percent drop. Massachusetts grew gaming revenues 163 percent in the month, due totally to the August opening of the $960 million MGM Springfield. Atlantic City’s revenues rose 15.8 percent through the openings in June of the Hard Rock Atlantic City and Ocean Resort and the expansion of sports betting.
“The numbers from sports betting are not huge, but the wagering did make a difference,” Adams said. “The economy is also doing its part.”
Atlantic City’s revenue total of $239.1 million in October was “still a long way from the pre-Pennsylvania days” when the market generated $415.5 million in October 2006. But Adams termed the increase “significant” since it followed more than 10 years of declining revenues.
MGM National Harbor continues to drive the Maryland market with gaming revenues climbing 18.6 percent while, similarly, New York was driving to a 52 percent increase through the opening of Resorts World Catskill s.
In Rhode Island, the relocation of the Newport Grand to Tiverton helped gaming revenues grow 6.8 percent.
Illinois gaming revenue grew 6.3 percent over, but that was due to the state’s VLT market, which saw a 14.3 percent increase in revenue. The state’s casinos saw gaming revenues decline 1.5 percent.
Adams said economic factors were helpful throughout the U.S.
As the Thanksgiving holiday approached in November, the American Automobile Association said, “Consumers have a lot to be thankful for this holiday season: higher wages, more disposable income and rising levels of household wealth.”
Adams added that “more jobs and more money to spend has been the situation all year.”
CDC Gaming distributes the Adams Revenue Revue to premium subscribers.
Howard Stutz is the executive editor of CDC Gaming. He can be reached at hstutz@cdcgamingreports.com. Follow @howardstutz on Twitter.
