Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Rush Street outlook positive
According to Jefferies’ David Katz in a statement August 3, Rush Street reported “a healthy 2Q25 revenue/Adjusted EBITDA beat that was accompanied by a FY25 guidance raise with revenue targets between $1.05 billion and $1.1 billion versus $1.01 billion to $1.08 billion previously, and Adjusted EBITDA targets of $133 million and $147 million versus $115 million to $135 million previously. The increase in guidance, coupled with the defined path of growth, supports the bull case and lessens valuation concerns. “
Caesars’ profile raised
“Following Caesar’s 2Q25A results and earnings call, we raise our calendar year 25E/calendar year 26E digital segment EBITDA 5%6%,” David Bain of Texas Capital Securities wrote on July 30. “We adjust our combined calendar year 25E/calendar year 26E Las Vegas and Regional EBITDA (1%)/unchanged. More substantive land-based forecast changes were captured in our 2Q25 preview. Digital EBITDA, based on peer valuations, should be Caesars’ highest-value segment, in our view, particularly given Caesars’ openness to a potential IPO/spin of the segment.”
VICI remains strong
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities July 31 looked at VICI.
“VICI reported adjusted funds from operations/share +1% to us and the Street, and raised 2025 guidance by +1% as well,” Jonas wrote. “The deal environment has been relatively stable since last quarter. While Vegas tenants are seeing some summer softness, VICI is not concerned and sees a rebound beginning in Q4. Flowing through the beat we raise our 2025E estimates to the midpoint of guidance, with 2025E adjusted funds from operations to $2,510 million (from $2,485 million and adjusted funds from operations/share to $2.36 (from $2.35). We reiterate our Buy rating and $38 price target as VICI is one of the best performing land-based stocks in our coverage +12% year-to-date (versus Standard & Poor up +8%) with an increasingly important dividend (~5% yield) and robust pipeline.
Brightstar Lottery emerging
Katz also commented on Bright Star Lottery, writing that “the moment for Bright Star this quarter was less about the results than about establishing a new base of comparison and overall tone for the company and the stock. Given the remaining lottery business post the sale of land-based and digital gaming and the return of capital, we believe the profile should begin going forward as a modest growth, cash-generating and capital returning company. As this process evolves, valuation levels should be established. Reiterate Hold.
Global sectors neutral, with some reservations
Fitch Ratings on July 31 published a complement to its latest Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor, featuring updates to 2025 and 2026 key performance indicator assumptions for various sectors, a summary of mid-year 2025 sector outlook revisions, aggregate forecasts, and regional and sector forecast revisions for rated issuers as of June 2025.
According to Fitch, most corporate sector outlooks remain neutral, but 12 sectors, particularly those related to consumer spending, natural resources, and healthcare, have been revised to deteriorating outlooks from neutral because of challenges from higher tariffs and U.S. policies affecting global revenue growth. Key updates to regional-specific KPIs include downward revisions for North American airline traffic, electric vehicle market share in China, and volume assumptions for non-alcoholic beverages in Latin America, U.S. food away-from-home expenditures and Australian gaming revenue growth.
