Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Growth in Macau
Dan Politzer of J. P. Morgan on January 2 recapped Macau’s gaming financials in 2025.
“Macau’s DICJ (Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau) reported December GGR of MOP 20.9 billion, +15% year-over-year and representing 91% of 2019 levels, consistent with October/November’s ~91-92% pacing. The +15% year-over-year growth likely missed investor expectations, which we believe had increased over the course of December to ~18-20% year-over year; recall, the prior year GGR comparison was likely impacted negatively by China President Xi’s December 2024 visit to Macau.
“Our channel checks suggest December 2025’s lower than expected GGR result may have been attributable to VIP dynamics such as low hold (likely sub 3% during December) and midweek timing of New Year’s Eve, which could have pushed some high-end play/visitation to January.”
Las Vegas Strip gross gaming revenue dips
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas on December 31 reviewed gaming on the Las Vegas Strip.
“November Strip gross gaming revenue was slightly lower, -1% year-over-year, primarily on lower table and baccarat win. Normalized GGR and total casino win ex-Baccarat were up +3%/+1% year-over-year. Locals GGR remains strong up +6% year-over-year, though normalized was +1% year-over-year. Visitation metrics and Strip revenue per available room are still soft (-5% year-over-year), though convention attendance was flat year-over-year.
“We lower our 2025E/26E/27E EBITDA for MGM (-1%/-7%/-7%) and Caesars (-1%/-1%/-2%) reflecting more conservatism on a Strip inflection to growth. Our MGM price target moves to $45 from $47. That said, we still view MGM/Caesars as inexpensive with Strip challenges well known.”
