Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Las Vegas signs of a rebound
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities recently met with management teams and gaming industry contacts in Las Vegas.
Key takeaways from a March 23 note:
“As Strip comps ease this summer there are signs of positive revenue per available room inflection, but not without risks. Red Rock Resorts locals construction disruptions are near term mild pain to long term severe gain while strong underlying trends should support the long terms bull case across the entire locals market. Higher gas prices don’t seem a wider concern (yet), but One Big Beautiful Bill tax refunds haven’t been a noticeable tailwind either – and the Iran conflict adds uncertainty. Caesars’ M&A chatter remains the talk of the town, despite nothing concrete.”
New York OSB remains steady
David Katz of Jefferies looked at New York statewide online sports betting on March 22:
“New York statewide OSB hold was up 20 basis points week-over-week to 9.2%, with most operators seeing minimal week-over-week changes except BetMGM, which saw hold increase 790 basis points week-over-week. BetMGM led the group with 11.5% hold, followed by Caesars 10.8% and DraftKings 10.5%. Statewide handle was down (0.3%) year-over-year on the week, with year-to-date statewide handle down (1.5%) year-over-year vs. tough comps (e.g., statewide handle in the first 11 weeks of 2025 was +22% year-over-year). This week, DraftKings led in GGR market share with 37.7% vs. Flutter’s 33.2% and BetMGM’s 9.6%.”
Gaming industry signs remain optimistic
Chad Beynon of Macquarie on March 20 reported on the company’s 11th Annual Consumer Bright Ideas Conference:
“Consensus remains that Las Vegas will slowly recover throughout the year, supported by a more robust group/conventions schedule and non-gaming events, and could even grow year-over-year with continued leisure improvement. In regionals, the consumer remains resilient particularly with core customers, while the lower-end is now showing growth and management teams expect One Big Beautiful Bill tailwinds in March/April/ May.
“For online, both management teams and investors have theories for the historic sell-off, but both agree that its overdone and a lot of babies are being thrown out with the bath water, both from a predictions market and software standpoint. Regardless, online management teams remain focused on what they control – proving out numbers and, as a result, their business model.
“REIT management teams still see lots of opportunities with interest rates stabilized in a healthy range. Overall, the regional pipeline remains solid, supported by tribal/non-tribal, while plenty of opportunities internationally and/or on the non-gaming side exist.”
SportRadar shares on upswing
Samuel Nielsen of J. P. Morgan on March 19 weighed in on Sportradar:
“Sportradar shares are outperforming today (+6% vs. Standard & Poor 500 Index, -0.7%) on news that the MLB named Polymarket as an exclusive prediction market partner, with the partnership including use of official data from Sportradar; there’s also an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commision to establish an integrity framework. We note this announcement follows a letter last week from the CFTC, which suggested prediction markets use official data to settle event contracts, which may have served as another catalyst for the MLB to get involved. We spoke with Sportradar, and while terms of the deal were not disclosed, we think the MLB/Polymarket deal could provide a framework for further league/prediction market deals. We note Sportradar is the official data provider of the MLB.”
