Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas on November 6 examined DraftKings’ prediction market strategy:
“After last night’s surprising miss and guide-down, DraftKings noted its prediction market strategy is based on internal data and they believe justified even when factoring potential regulatory outcomes. Still, the market is likely assuming no ROI while iGaming spend moves higher in the core, and the macro is a headwind regardless. The market doesn’t like the uncertainty, but we’ll try to get some more clarity at our Boston conference next month. We lower 26E/27E to the low end of the guide with our price target to $22 from $26. Shares could be rangebound in the near term but maintain our Buy rating at current valuation even without assuming any prediction market ROI.”
Chad Beynon of Macquarie on November 6 also looked at DraftKings:
“3Q26 results provided further evidence that DraftKing’s core business remains more resilient and nimble than peers. While FY26 EBITDA guide was reduced to $175-275 million, it mostly reflects increased prediction market investments, where customer acquisition, retention, and paybacks are tracking better than expected. More than 1.6m customers have engaged with predictions year-to-date, and management disclosed the FY26 cohort is generating ~$350m of annualized adjusted gross profit with ~20-month paybacks. At the same time, the core business continues to perform well, with sportsbook revs +36% year-over-year with hand.”
Samuel Nielsen of J. P. Morgan on November 9 looked at Genius Sports:
“Genius Sports had a solid third quarter report, with 3Q EBITDA of $87 million 2% above the Street, and its FY26 EBITDA guidance increased by 1% to flow through 3Q upside. While its implied 4Q guidance was left unchanged, we note that Genius Sports has raised its FY26 EBITDA guidance 6% (+$17 million) since early-May (with some of the prior raise likely attributed to a higher 4Q outlook) and has a track record of delivering earnings upside (EBITDA beat Street estimates the last four quarters).”
David Bain of Texas Capital Securities on November 6 examined Wynn Resorts:
“Following a 7% EBITDA miss relative to our estimates, we lower CY27E EBITDA 3% to account for a more conservative Macau outlook. While the quarter featured multiple moving parts, we believe the core operational headwinds were well understood by the market prior to the print. After anticipated 3Q shortfall digestion, we expect institutional conversations to turn increasingly constructive. Our outlook across key structural drivers remains positive: We expect Wynn’s Las Vegas operations to deliver steady growth next year. In Macau, while the near-term environment remains soft, consensus expectations have now appropriately reset to a more realistic, subdued baseline.
“In Boston, the property’s labor dispute successfully concluded last night (November 5). We expect the asset to immediately benefit from resilient, close-to-home drive-to gaming trends moving forward. And finally, Wynn’s UAE integrated resort remains on budget and schedule. We lower our price target to $117 from $130 driven by reduced estimates. Maintain buy.”
