Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
David Bain of Texas Capital Securities on May 11 examined DraftKings:
“Following a 7% EBITDA beat versus consensus estimates and its earnings call on May 8, our forecast is largely unchanged. Outperformance was driven by a higher than anticipated net win margin resulting from lower operating costs and a slightly higher win rate. Full year (wide range) guidance was reiterated. Prediction market spend and related product introductions should ramp through the year. We do not anticipate consensus estimates going higher post earnings, which leaves us with valuation expansion/contraction. We don’t have clear visibility into either as any sustainable re-rating likely needs to be matched with a clearer prediction market regulatory/investment roadmap, particularly with the backdrop of decelerated OSB handle trends and potentially decelerating igaming ones. Maintain neutral.
Chad Beynon of Macquarie also looked at DraftKings on May 8:
“We believe DraftKings remains one of the most compelling structural growth stories in gaming, underpinned by its scaled leadership in online sports betting/igaming and comprehensive product ecosystem, which now includes predictions. The predictions product is fast evolving, with market making already launched and the proprietary exchange to follow in the coming weeks.
“DraftKings is now positioned to ramp up predictions customer acquisition spend, which it expects to drive a significant increase in monthly unique payers in the back half of the year. We have seen this playbook before, when upfront investment secures the long-term growth runway. Against this backdrop, and with shares -23% year-to-date (vs -23% Online; -14% IGV), we reiterate our Outperform rating as we forecast three-year revs/EBITDA compound annual growth rates of +10%/42%.
David Katz of Jefferies on May 18 examined Wynn Resorts:
“The implied delay at Wynn Al Marjan Island is not surprising, offset by strength in the base business, are both priced in and therefore neutral. The addition of a new Cotai hotel tower (in Macau) at Wynn Palace ($900–950 million capital expenditure 2.5 years’ timing, assuming >$150–175 million EBITDA), provides incremental growth. Wynn’s track record supports optimism, with the successful UAE launch the key catalyst for shares. Reiterate Buy.”
Josh Nichols of B Riley Securities looked at Inspired Entertainment on May 7:
“Buy-rated Inspired Entertainment delivered 1Q results that beat consensus on EBITDA, driven by another quarter of strong interactive growth and +1,100 bps of year-over-year EBITDA margin expansion. Revenue of $57.2 million was below consensus of $58.9 million but above our $55.2 million. The year-over-year sales decline (-5.3% compared to 1Q25) was isolated to portfolio actions (Holiday Parks divestiture and pubs restructuring), which masked +15% underlying revenue growth.”
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas on May 7 appraised Genius Sports:
“Q1 was well ahead of our and Street estimates, on the back of continued strong betting growth and better than expected Media revenues. Management introduced Q2/2026 guidance now layering in the Legend deal (closed on 5/1) while maintaining prior standalone guidance. While Genius remains on the battlefield against the Legend and prediction market overhangs (overdone, in our view), we think they will start ‘showing me’ in the next couple of quarters while we could see meaningful synergy potential not currently in guidance. We flow through the beat and take our estimates to the midpoint of guidance and keep our price target the same ($10).”
