Summary

In this episode, Nick & Dan speak with Josh Hodgson, Chief Operating Officer of data and market research firm, H2 Gambling Capital. Learn more about the H2 product & service portfolio, and listen-in as Josh walks us through recent analyses covering the 2026-27 NFL season, prediction markets, the Lottomatica / Cirsa merger, and growth projections for Europe's land-based market. Also in this episode, what we're looking for at G2E 2026.

Transcript

Nick Hogan:

Good morning, Dan. How’s your G2E checklist looking? Are you all ready to go?

Dan Cherry:

Slowly coming together, Nick. I guess depending on how you count, it’s what, six days, five days, four days away. So looking forward to seeing you here in here in Vegas next week.

Nick Hogan:

Yeah, it’ll be a nice trip over. Looking forward to it for sure. So let’s see. News this month, Dan. I thought I’d revisit what’s been happening on the prediction markets front since we’ve been tracking that. Quite a bit of legal activity. So back in March, if you recall, Arizona’s Attorney General filed a 20 count criminal complaint against Kalshi citing election related betting, which is strictly illegal under Arizona law and operating a sports book without a license. However, in May, the US District Court for the District of Arizona, which is part of the Ninth Circuit, ruled in favor of Kalshi stating that the Commodity Exchange Act under which Kalshi operates and is regulated by the CFTC preempts state gambling laws. So the judge then issued a federal injunction effectively freezing the AG’s case.

However, in August and September, the higher court, so the Ninth District Court of Appeals ruled in the opposite direction in two cases.

There was Kalshi versus Assad and then Blue Lake Rancheria versus Kalshi. So the Assad case involved the NGCB’s cease and desist order against Kalshi. And in that case, the appellate court ruled that sport event contracts are fundamentally sports bets, not swaps, as they’re defined in the Commodity Exchange Act. So as they’re not swaps, the court ruled that Kalshi has to comply with Nevada State gaming regulations and required Kalshi to geofence Nevada until it’s compliant with state law.

And then in the Blue Lake Rancheria case, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals cited with the tribes, again ruling that the event contracts are bets, not swaps, and that once again, Kalshi must geofence tribal lands until it’s reached a state of compliance with the applicable tribal gaming regulations.

So Dan, that’s now two courts in the same circuit disagreeing with each other. And if we rewind to our episodes with Brendan Bussmann and Mike Dreitzer, I’m wondering if this might not be the on-ramp to the Supreme Court. I think each of those guys, if you recall, they said ultimately this is going to come down to nine opinions and it’s certainly starting to look like that day might be approaching. So Dan, any feelings about this either way, hopes and fears or you seen anything there that’s catching your attention?

Dan Cherry:

No. I mean, it seems like the topic that won’t go away, right? It’s only headed in one direction. On a related note, I don’t know if you saw the one thing I would add is just yesterday, the CFTC announced that Kalshi petitioned them to allow margin trading on sports trades.

Nick Hogan:

Oh, jeez.

Dan Cherry:

So what could go wrong there?

Nick Hogan:

Yeah, exactly. You really just have to think about there’s a group in there just trying to make the biggest mess possible. Oh my God. Okay. So no, that’s not a good thing to hear, but okay, with any luck, this starts to take shape here within a relative short term.

Okay, so we are going to jump into listener question here. Before I read it, let me quickly state that we love to tackle any questions anybody listening may have. So if you have a question about what we’re presenting or something you’d like us to present, please drop us an email at realcast@realmetrics.com. Again, that’s R-E-E-L-C-A-S-T @realmetrics.com. Our policy is to keep all questions anonymous, so please speak directly and don’t worry about us revealing your identity. That’s not something we do.

So Dan, this comes from an operator in the American Midwest who asks, “Hey, Nick and Dan, what will you be looking for at this year’s G2E?” So Dan, as I tend to attend these events in sell mode as opposed to buy mode, I’m going to throw this one to you to handle solo.

Dan Cherry:

Yeah, no, great question. Always looking forward to the show. I mean, my focus is a little bit different this year, Nick, just because I’m not directly buying for an organization. So I think my view and what I’m hoping to get from it is a little more big picture, but there is some new hardware being the view that should be exciting. I know I’m going to miss a couple here, but specifically Wonder I know is debuting a new cabinet called the Firebird, which is a 55-inch display that should be really exciting and we’ll see what that looks like. Aristocrat announced they’re launching what they’re calling the Reign cabinet, which I believe, I could be wrong, but I believe it’s essentially the replacement to the Neptune.

Nick Hogan:

Yeah, that’s my understanding too.

Dan Cherry:

So it’s a curved slant top. And then one other that was announced that we’ll see is the AGS Glo Upright 43. My guess is that’s more of just the new generation upright cabinet replacing some of the Spectra content, but I could be wrong there. So those are three. There’s others, I apologize that I’ve probably missed.

And then not new, but I’m really interested in seeing the continued evolution of a couple hardware pieces that debuted either earlier this year or last year. In particular Konami Solstice, that cabinet debuted at the beginning of this year. A lot of folks have either made their first placements or seeing how those initial teams are going and are evaluating, do I make a second buy? A lot of folks still need to get penetration on that cabinet. So it’d be really interesting to see more the content on that cabinet that’s debuted. Because Konami’s at a place they really need. They’ve had good success, early numbers