A Wall Street analyst said the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed by President Trump over the weekend should be positive for the domestic casino industry, especially the Las Vegas locals market.
John DeCree, director of equity research for CBRE, said in a note to investors on Tuesday that new tax cuts, such as no tax on tips, an extra deduction for seniors, and no tax on overtime “should boost spending power for several key casino cohorts.”
DeCree, however, weighed in on the provision in the bill that has generated outcry among gamblers and the industry that allows players to deduct only 90% of their losses, down from 100%, starting in 2026.
“This could create phantom income for some high-volume gamblers that even break even or lose money in a given year, such as poker players and sports bettors,” DeCree said. “Although this customer cohort isn’t particularly profitable for the industry, given the relatively low win margins, recreational players could also see higher tax liabilities and reduced betting volumes.”
A legislative fix called the Fair Bet Act has been filed in Congress by U.S. Rep. Dina Titus of Nevada. It has the backing of the American Gaming Association, which opposed that provision, but supported other measures of the bill that aid the gaming industry.
The No Tax on Tips provision allows eligible employees to deduct up to $25,000 of qualified cash tip income for federal tax purposes. Although some economists estimate only 2.5% of the U.S. workforce are tipped employees, this number is substantially higher in Las Vegas, where DeCree estimates 19% of the workforce, or some 215,000 employees, earn tips.
“Admittedly, assessing the potential tax savings here is challenging, given various individual tax situations and lack of reliable data due to under-reported tips,” DeCree said. “However, using reasonable assumptions and available data, we estimate that tipped employees in Las Vegas could see an average of $1,080 of annual tax savings. This would translate to over $230 million in incremental spending power across the Las Vegas Valley. This represents a significant incremental revenue opportunity for Las Vegas locals’ casinos, especially considering the market’s propensity to game is the highest in the country.”
The Bonus Senior Deduction allows a $6,000 deduction ($12,000 for joint filers) for qualified taxpayers aged 65 and older, DeCree said. An estimated 61.2 million Americans are over the age of 65, representing 18% of the total population. Although the average age of casino visitors has declined since the pandemic, the retiree demographic is still a valuable customer cohort for the casino industry, given their greater discretionary time and propensity to game than other cohorts, he noted.
According to a survey by the AGA, half of older Americans (65+) gamble in some form at least weekly.
No Tax on Overtime allows a $12,500 deduction ($25,000 for joint filers) on qualified overtime pay. According to the Department of Labor, 97.7 million workers are eligible for overtime protection under federal law. About 12% of these employees (11.7 million) regularly work qualified overtime, while another 5% (4.9 million) occasionally work overtime. Forecasting the potential tax savings here is also challenging but using median household income data, DeCree estimates the average savings could be $2,750 per employee and translate to about $32.2 billion of consumer-spending power.
