Room rates on the Las Vegas Strip in the third quarter look “choppy” to Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas. But he felt they were encouraging, showing a positive trajectory across all price categories.
Jonas’s findings were reported in an August 19 investor note. He observed that his research reaffirmed a thesis of a gradual Strip recovery, not a sudden upward thrust in rates.
“We remain positive on the overall Strip environment and think trends will continue to improve over time,” Jonas added. He observed that Wynn Resorts was outperforming the market, while Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts International were coping with “uneven market fundamentals.”
To that end, Jonas noted that Caesars’s room rates in the third quarter were down 11 percent year over year and MGM’s were 10 percent off. Wynn, however, was four percent up.
“Overall, July rates showed strength on the Strip, which was more than offset by a softer August and September,” particularly on weekdays. Those weekday rates plummeted 18 percent at MGM and 19 percent at Caesars, while Wynn beat 2025 rates by nine percent.
Still, “We remain positive on the overall Strip environment and think trends will continue to improve over time,” Jonas wrote.
His findings showed MGM rates trending from four percent higher in July to down 16 percent in August and 13 percent in September. Similarly, Caesars went from a point up in July to and 18 percent decline in August and 14 percent in September.
October was seen as a relief, with MGM jumping to plus 13 percent from 2025 and Caesars spiking 27 percent. Wynn was up 14 percent. Jonas cautioned that this was early data and volatility was possible.
By contrast, the locals-casino market remains solid, according to Jonas, although “we are seeing some sustained rate deceleration since April.” To wit, locals room rates sank eight percent in October, even as they jumped 10 percent on the Strip. Even so, Jonas felt it was a reliable market, with both Station Casinos and Boyd Gaming reporting firm trends in the third quarter.
For the Strip, low-end customers continued to be the weak spot. In July, customers willing to pay $300 or more a night for rooms drove a 10 percent price increase, while the low end ($150 a night or less) subsided 10 percent.
In August, high-priced rooms were down nine percent, but those bargain-priced fell 28 percent, and the middle market ($151-$299 a night) was down 20 percent. Going into September, low-end rooms slipped 18 percent compared to minus 12 percent in the middle market and an eight percent decline at the high end.
Again, October brought the promise of relief. Low-end room prices ticked up four percent. High-end rooms saw a 10 percent price increase, but the middle market jumped 17 percent in price. Jonas credited this positive moment to the presence of the Las Vegas Raiders, which has three home games on their October schedule.
Truist compiled its data across 20 Las Vegas Strip casinos, tracking 13 weeks of forward-looking data. “At the same time, we currently exclude resort fees which likely overstates the percentage of rate movements,” the firm stated.
