A gaming analyst said he doesn’t foresee any new development or redevelopment on the Las Vegas Strip for years, being too cost prohibitive.
“I just don’t think it pencils economically,” said Bill Lerner, a managing director for CBRE and founder of Union Gaming, who spoke to commercial real estate executives during a luncheon at The Orleans. “The pool of capital that you actually need to support ground-up development on the Las Vegas Strip corridor I don’t think is affordable. Lenders aren’t comfortable underwriting new development on the Strip corridor. It’s way too hard to compete with all the multi-properties. The Cosmopolitan finally figured it out after a lot of years of being a single property in a market where you have a few parties that own just about everything and of course now MGM owns it.
“Fontainebleau is struggling for numerous reasons, including not having a feeder property of note,” Lerner said. “It’s improving, but the comps are very difficult. The cost of capital to do it is way too high and development cost to build a competitive property is prohibitive. The capex dollars we will see here will be to refresh (existing properties) to remain competitive, but post the Hard Rock redeveloping The Mirage (for $4 million to $5 million), I think it could be a really long time.”
Gaming industry veteran, Michelle DiTondo, a principal at Avion Consulting and member of the Resorts World Las Vegas Board of Directors, said any development in Las Vegas will likely cater to locals, citing additional phases planned by Red Rock Resorts at the Durango Casino & Resort.
“Resorts World has 40-plus undeveloped acres that we could use for convention space,” DiTondo said. “I doubt that large hotel towers are planned, but we’re actively looking at what can be done with that space that would drive traffic at the north end of the Strip.”
Lerner suggested an NBA arena on the Resorts World property could be the “next beautiful build” on the Strip. He also agreed more locals casinos will be built for the growing Las Vegas population.
DiTondo said the lack of new rooms added to the Strip inventory is beneficial for existing operators, who need to fill existing rooms first.
Lerner was asked what he thought about more tribes or international operators coming to Las Vegas. He said tribal activity has slowed since the Yuhaaviatam of San Manuel Nation acquired the Palms while the Seminole Tribe of Florida acquired the Mirage and is redeveloping it for a 2027 opening.
After a slow start, the Palms is starting to work “quite well,” according to Lerner, who also said he expects the Hard Rock Las Vegas to do well. Tribes are more likely to turn to commercial properties in other states than to Las Vegas, he added.
Lerner said Asian operators besides Malaysian-based Genting Berhad, which owns Resorts World Las Vegas, have been interested in Las Vegas, but never executed. There’s also potential from a sovereign wealth fund, a pension fund or hedge fund.
“A couple of Latin American gaming companies would like to have a flag in Las Vegas or partnership or own a casino that caters to the Latin American demographic,” Lerner said.
Both speakers weighed in on the struggles of Las Vegas visitation and occupancy being down in 2025 and what’s happening to the marketplace. Lerner called it mixed, with the high-end healthy and able to handle the elevated room rates and higher priced food and beverage, sports, and entertainment. For other visitors, they need to feel comfortable about their spending in the current economic environment, which has led to people staying closer to home. That has helped regional casino operators do better than Las Vegas, he said.
Las Vegas has also been hurt by the geopolitical fallout between Canada and the Trump administration that has led to fewer visitors from across the border, Lerner said. Other issues include airline capacity and Latinos worried about traveling for fear of deportation.
DiTondo said the first quarter of 2026 has gotten off to a strong start and is optimistic for Las Vegas going forward.
“This year will be better than last year,” DiTondo said, citing casino promotions helping lure customers to the city. “Leadership in the gaming companies has responded to some of the public messages out there around pricing and additional fees.”
While visitors fret about resort fees and Las Vegas residents complain about parking fees, the panelists said those aren’t going away, except when properties offer short-term promotions like last year.
Lerner said casino arrangements with REITS, which own the land and buildings and to which casinos pay rent, won’t allow the dynamic of eliminating parking fees and resort fees. Casinos have rents and debt to pay and he doesn’t know how “the genie can be put back in the bottle on this one.”
Pricing at restaurants and other shops is impacted, because third-party tenants pay rent and casinos can’t tell them they’re charging too much, Lerner said. “I don’t know how you do that. If you’re MGM and leasing space to restaurateurs, you have no choice.”
