As far as Circa Sports owner Derek Stevens is concerned, prediction markets are enjoying a parasitic relationship with the sports betting industry. He made his views plain Tuesday in an interview with CDC Gaming.
“They’re pirates. They’re thieves,” Stevens fumed of Polymarket, Kalshi, and their ilk. “We’d be able to offer minus -102 splits either way as well if we didn’t have all the fees to pay. I tend to believe that more balanced heads are going to prevail.”
Stevens ticked off a list of the fees and taxes prediction markets are flouting, including federal sports-betting excise tax, state gaming taxes, league-data fees, and problem-gambling funds. “We’re paying all those fees. They don’t. Effectively, they’re thieves.”
Asked if he saw the issue going all the way to the Supreme Court, Stevens replied, “I don’t see the state of New York backing down and saying, ‘Oh, just because you guys are shrewd, we’re going to take a billion-dollar hit on our state revenue.’
“lllinois is a great example,” the Circa founder continued. “Hell, they charge a 25-cent fee on every wager. Just because Kalshi and Polymarket are avoiding those fees, does that make them better? I think no. It’s preposterous.” Stevens then offered an analogy of hijacking a truckload of big-screen TVs, driving to Best Buy’s parking lot, and setting up shot, selling TVs off the back of the truck for half-price.
Although he said Circa’s business model “can compete pretty well” with prediction markets, Stevens allowed that he’d recently felt some loss of handle share. “With us running a low-hold model, we felt prediction markets took a decent amount of handle away from us,” he said.
Stevens isn’t feeling a bite from Boomer’s, a newcomer to the Nevada sportsbook industry. “Boomer’s is great,” Stevens enthused. “Nevada’s so robust that the pie is substantial.” He theorized that Boomer’s was filling the void left by William Hill when it vacated Nevada, but that “it doesn’t really impact us.”
Like other sportsbook operators, Stevens conceded that there was a bit of a slowdown in the second quarter. World Cup play “had a bigger impact on the retail side than it did on the betting-handle side. Stadium Swim was sold out every day, every game. The sportsbook was filled.” As for handle, it “was okay.”
Stevens thought World Cup bettors were a mix of newcomers and those who are normally dormant in the summer months. “We didn’t have a big soccer business before, so certainly some new customers. Then there are some customers, who basically bet football, that might have been drawn in by World Cup. A lot of people did catch World Cup fever, myself included.”
A new frontier for Circa Sports will be opening soon, as the company was recently licensed in Arizona. Stevens said the operation will go live in January 2027, “still subject to change.” Getting licensed in the state was no problem, he added. “It’s not as if we have to find any new information,” he explained. “All the information has already been asked and answered.”
Unlike other Circa jurisdictions, Arizona will be online only, at least at first. Stevens said he has “a unique interest in developing a retail presence as well, which could be with another operator. But I can’t talk about it,” he added with a chuckle.
