Sometimes I’m criticized for being verbose, so I’ll keep this analysis succinct.

The Macau government’s estimate for Macau GGR for the 2022 calendar year was MOP$130 billion. Remember that number.

Earlier today, the DICJ announced the November GGR was a paltry MOP$3.0 billion, making Macau’s actual 2022 GGR for the first 11 months a total of MOP$38.7 billion.

Let’s extrapolate that number to a 12-month equivalent run rate: MOP$38.7 billion x 12/11 = MOP$42.2 billion (US$5.3 billion). Given we’re 11 months into the year, that will be a quite accurate estimate of the actual 2022 GGR.

That run rate as a percentage of the original government estimate is 42.2 billion divided by 130 billion which is a mere 32%! That’s just under one third of the original estimate — which itself was only 44% of 2019 (pre-pandemic) GGR.