Betting odds more accurate than polls in forecasting Trump’s win

Wednesday, November 6, 2024 8:03 PM
Photo:  By Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America - Donald Trump, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47177858
  • Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review Journal

Betting odds proved to be a much better prognosticator than polls in forecasting Donald Trump’s landslide victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election.

Several prominent polling experts, including Nate Silver, The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, had the race at essentially a 50-50 toss-up on Election Day, while The Economist gave Harris a 56 percent chance of winning.

Yet Trump remained a solid -162 betting favorite over Harris, the +142 underdog, on Tuesday afternoon at offshore sportsbook BetOnline. The -162 price (which meant bettors had to wager $162 to win $100 on Trump to be elected) implied he had a 61.8 percent chance of winning.