To the extent that a result can be divined from oral arguments, the Ninth Circuit hearing between Nevada and Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood on April 16 did not appear to go the prediction markets’ way.
Judge Ryan D. Nelson looked exasperated at the prediction markets’ arguments and told their lawyers “this can’t be a serious argument” at one point.
The one thing Nelson seemed to be especially concerned about was the CFTC’s rule 40.11…
The rule refers to a “prohibition” on contracts involving gaming, as well as war, terrorism, assassination, and other illegal activities. Prediction market lawyers have argued that it’s not quite a blanket ban (though some public statements from Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour seem to contradict this).
