A Wall Street analyst is predicting a “Taylor Swift effect” for the Super Bowl that will help Las Vegas and sportsbooks nationwide generate record wagers on the game.
Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley wrote in a note to investors that while the Super Bowl is always important for sportsbooks, the combination of Las Vegas and the storyline of Swift and her boyfriend, Kansas City Chief’s tight end Travis Kelce, are elevating the game to even a higher level.
Hosting the Super Bowl for the first time, “all signs indicate it is going to be a great weekend for the city,” Kelley noted. The average ticket price is up 27% year over year to $9,014. Bank of America’s room-rate survey shows the Wynn has been sold out since late December with rates 250% above last year, “which illustrates the high-end skew of the event.” Compared to Formula One, the Super Bowl seems to have a broader appeal, with Caesars and MGM room rates up 75% above F1 levels.
During Swift’s tour last summer, she drove premium room- rate revenue in the cities where she performed and Kelley believes she could be driving a portion of the higher ticket prices and expectations for viewership and wagers.
“Sportsbooks are offering Taylor Swift-themed prop bets, mostly related to Travis Kelce’s performance,” Kelley said. “While it’s early, ESPN Bet may have a higher proportion of female bettors than other sportsbooks and could be a surprise beneficiary of Swifties tuning in. Regardless of the game outcome, we think the city of Las Vegas hosting its first-ever Super Bowl and the rapidly emerging sports betting industry are positioned to win.”
The American Gaming Association has projected $1.5 billion will be bet on the game nationwide, a 35% increase over last year’s record. In New York, Kelly noted that the online handle will exceed $240 million, or 58% higher than Nevada’s handle last year.
“The sportsbooks may be cheering on the 49ers, given that 71% of the money is on the Chiefs, but we think increased same-game parlays and prop bets will help support win rates,” Kelley said.
In sports betting nationwide, Kelley said market share leaders DraftKings and FanDuel should be the biggest beneficiaries. New player promotions from tier-two operators look rational, but BetMGM is launching new ads, including with Tom Brady and Wayne Gretzky, to re-accelerate their brand following recent app upgrades, Kelley wrote.
“We estimate the event makes up about 12% of Feb. online-sports-betting gross gaming revenue, but just 0.8% to the full year,” Kelley said. “In general, growth for ‘tent-pole’ events tends to be lower than industry averages, as they have attracted big volumes in prior years.”
As for Las Vegas sportsbooks, Kelley said Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM will benefit from their Las Vegas location. Caesars has a high-online-sports-betting share in Nevada and BetMGM’s new app in Nevada includes new parlay offerings and integration with BetMGM Rewards.
Nevada sportsbooks expect the state will break its record of $179.8 million, wagered in February 2022. Some 330,000 people were projected to visit Las Vegas for the Super Bowl weekend.
“On the brick-and-mortar side, we think Wynn will benefit from the high-end clientele and outperform the rest of the Strip, though the corporate nature of the event could skew to non-gaming relative to Formula One,” Kelley wrote.
