Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Rush Street’s potential for Maine igaming
David Katz of Jefferies on January 25 commented on igaming in Maine in regards to Rush Street:
“We believe that there is further potential upside from the recent surprise legalization of igaming in Maine. However, we are not yet including this in our forecast given 1) Rush Street does not have an existing relationship with tribes as yet, who will have exclusivity and 2) the start date for operations remains uncertain, though it will likely come by year end 2026. We view further igaming legalization in states such as New York, Maryland and Illinois as key potential positive catalysts for RSI, particularly in financial year 2027 and beyond.
Las Vegas Sands, DraftKings cited for earnings potential
Dan Politzer of J.P. Morgan on January 23 took measure of gaming stocks.
“Gaming stocks are carrying a lot of baggage and negativity right now, and thus we are selective. Into 4Q25 earnings we like Las Vegas Sands and DraftKings. Digital is the segment we see the greatest opportunity for earnings beats, but stocks are dogged by investor concerns on handle growth, prediction markets, and regulatory/tax risk (legislatures are in session). Investor appetite for Macau appears subdued on operations expense concerns, unfavorable GGR mix, and mixed setup regarding second half GGR comps, while Las Vegas Strip expectations remain muted with the key debates how much lower do estimates have to go/when will we see EBITDA grow again (2Q?). To us, regionals have the cleanest setup from here (and could be a stimulus beneficiary), but we expect 4Q reports will be mostly in-line, and adverse January weather could be a headwind.”
Caesars’ digital EBITDA estimate lowered
Texas Capital’s David Bain on January 15 looked at Caesars:
“We lower our 4Q25 digital EBITDA to $70 million versus consensus of $84 million for well-known October hold disruption, in-line with more recent sell-side adjustments. Importantly, in our view, we made no changes to our 4Q25E Las Vegas estimate. Checks cite lower-end Las Vegas leisure trends as stabilized, albeit at a lower base. We continue to model Las Vegas year-over-year growth beginning in 2Q26E with sustained year-over-year improvements throughout the year. We believe Caesars’ historic low valuation augments in 2026 driven by Las Vegas growth, continued regional stability/growth, significant digital growth and a lower interest rate environment.”
Genius Sports rated highly
Josh Nichols of B Riley Securities on January 20 examined Genius Sports:
“We are raising our 2026 estimates and introducing 2027 projections for Buy-rated Genius Sports Limited ($14 price target) following management’s December 3 Analyst Day presentation, which provided a clear and credible roadmap to $1.2 billion revenue, $365 million EBITDA (30% margin), and $220 million free cash flow (60% conversion) by 2028. Our new 2026/27E revenue estimates of $780 million/$941 million are +19.%/+21% year-over-year and represent we believe to be achievable stepping stones toward management’s targets. The ability to successfully execute on these targets is underpinned by a locked-in content portfolio (largely through 2029/30), BetVision’s proven customer expansion (from 6 to 100+ sports books in the past year), and media’s confirmed growth inflection (+89% year-over-year in 3Q25).”
