Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Jeffries looks at online gaming models
In an April 13 release, Jeffries’ David Katz wrote that his firm remains mostly bullish about online gaming models given “the recent market dislocation and escalating macro concerns elsewhere in our coverage.”
For Draft Kings, Katz wrote that “we are reducing our 1Q estimates on March Madness weakness, as we now see 1Q revenue of $1.51 billion vs. $1.65 billion prior and $1.49B consensus.
“Unlike larger peers, we are not materially changing Rush Street’s estimates on March Madness, given the company is more oriented toward igaming in its business mix, which we believe should compensate for any unfavorable sports results in the near term.
“For Sportradar, “we still forecast 1Q25 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA of €309 million and €51million vs. consensus €305 million and €54 million respectively.
Slots update from Truist Securities
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas April 11 reported that his firm hosted a call with slot analytics firm ReelMetrics and its co-founder and CEO, Nick Hogan.
“Opportunities for growth remain, while Mr. Hogan is not yet seeing any player slowdown given the noisy macro,” Jonas wrote. “That said, tariff noise could present challenges for the industry. Both Light & Wonder and Aristocrat Leisure game performance remains solid despite ongoing litigation, while M&A hasn’t impacted IGT’s performance.”
J. P. Morgan on New York state sports betting
Estelle Weingrod of J. P. Morgan wrote April 10 that New York online sports betting data for the week ending April 6 recorded “a handle growth of +21% year-over-year and GGR growth of +6% year-over-year, translating to an implied hold rate of 7.9% (down 114 basis points year-over-year. For Q1 (covering the period from 30th Dec to 30th March), online sports betting handle was up 20% year-over-year, with GGR up 14% year-over-year, thereby resulting in an implied hold rate of 8.3% (down 41 basis points year-over-year).”
