Wall Street Bets: Genius Sports, Virginia

Josh Nichols of B Riley Securities looked at Genius Sports on June 8:

“Shares of Buy-rated Genius Sports are one of our top ideas heading into 2H26. A fireside at the B. Riley Securities 26^th annual Investor Conference reinforced our view that the setup is shifting from deal uncertainty to execution and that the two overhangs pressuring the stock are both beginning to fade. The first is the market’s view that the $1.2 billion Legend acquisition is a commoditized, over-levered affiliate bet. We see that as a fundamental misread. The more telling signal is that sportsbook customers reacted to the combination in the opposite direction of public investors, with combined proposals now in active circulation just weeks after the 5/1 close.”

Jefferies’ David Katz on June 8 looked at historical horse racing in Virginia:

“Virginia historical horse racing GGR rose +2.5% year-over-year in May, driven by the strongest month at The Rose since opening across win/unit/day and should be viewed as a positive for Churchill Downs. Richmond Rose’s remains pressured by a new temporary casino less that 30 minutes away; we believe this impact is well understood and reflected in shares. Virginia remains among the most attractive regional gaming growth markets, in our view, given underpenetration on a GGR per capita basis.”

Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas looked at gaming on the Las Vegas Strip:

April Strip GGR rose +7% year-over-year, with normalized win (+1%) and ex-baccarat (+5%) also healthy, while visitation metrics were flattish. Locals GGR was flat year-over-year, though normalized win was strong. We note the month did not have any calendar or slot accounting impact. Between our Vegas consumer perceptions survey, our Vegas room rate survey, our recent MGM upgrade and Caesars takeover/downgrade, it’s been a wild week on the Strip. We think today’s results were better than expected as we believe Q2 could be a potential inflection point for the Strip.”