Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Genius Sports acquisition of Legend media network
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas looked at Genius Sports on March 4:
“Q4 was inline with pre-announced results with the Legends (acquired in a definitive agreement announcement February 5) a few weeks back. Management reiterated Legends marks a structural shift for the company and spent significant time on the call (in addition to the CEO’s recent letter) to highlight its virtues and differences with a typical affiliate business. With the stock still trading off post-Legend news, we think Genius remains a ‘show me’ story, but management highlighted substantial synergy potential. We take our 26E to the midpoint of the guide and recut our model to adjust for the new reporting structure. With the recent market re-rating we lower our price target to $13 (from $15) but maintain our Buy rating with deal close in Q2.”
Churchill Downs draws investor interest
David Katz of Jefferies examined Churchill Downs in a post March 9:
“Churchill Downs remains active, given the pressure this week (-8.8%). Investors appear focused on two key issue sets. First, the prospective expansion in Virginia, which includes the efforts to legalize igaming, which we believe is eventually likely but 2-3 years from realization. Churchill Downs management indicates it is opposed but our sense is it could become a participant in the future.
“Second, the prospective sale of regional gaming assets, which we believe management should pursue assertively, with the goal of deleveraging below 4X and raising the company’s growth profile. Our sense is that there remains considerable noise around this process and our channel checks suggest may or may not occur.”
Accel Entertainment looking good
Patrick Keough of Truist Securities wrote March 3 that Accel Entertainment reported “a strong Q4, beating both our/Street estimates by double digits in our first quarter of coverage. Illinois metrics were healthy as Chicago remains a significant opportunity, with management eyeing revenue in 4Q26/1Q27. It was announced last month that Accel would undergo a leadership transition, as management provided more color on how new CEO Mark Phelan will look to evolve the business with his tenure beginning in August. Given a deal in Nevada (Rebel) and continued momentum, we raise both 2026E/27E +3% with our price target to $14 (from $13). Remain Hold-rated for now as we continue to monitor the Chicago process as well as other route gaming legislation.”
Sportradar underperforms
Samuel Nielsen of J. P. Morgan on March 3 wrote that “Sportradar 4Q Adjusted EBITDA of €89m was +8/7% vs J.P. Morgan/Street (reviews in-line, upside margins), while its maintained FY26 revenue guidance was 1% below the Street, likely causing shares to underperform today (-10% vs Standard & Poor 500 Index -1%). The extent of the underperformance is surprising to us given FY26/27 estimates don’t change much and Sportradar’s 21%-23% revenue growth expectation is appealing in the context of recent outlooks for its online sports betting peers (DraftKings/Flutter/BetMGM see ~low-teens growth in FY26).”
