Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Gaming and lodging outlook
Dan Politzer of J. P. Morgan on March 16 looked at U.S. gaming trends after last week’s JPM Management Access forum in Las Vegas:
“We come away tactically bullish on U.S. gaming operators – M&A activity supports valuations, the Las Vegas Strip appears to have bottomed, regional stimulus is forthcoming, and experiential offerings are insulated from AI. Sentiment on Macau is mixed, while digital gaming views are split between DraftKings and Flutter. In lodging, we continue to favor C-Corps over REITs, as C-Corps offer greater stimulus exposure, and we have a relative preference to be on the AI offensive via improving C-Corp distribution models/economics, though acknowledge REITs’ defensive/HALO attributes. The recent geopolitical-driven selloff presents an attractive entry point for large-cap C-Corps, as U.S. and European fundamentals remain stable and Middle East is ~3-5% of fees.”
Brightstar remains steady
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas commented on a meeting with Brightstar Lottery March 11:
“Brightstar, now a pure-play lottery company, has seen its shares underperform following the divestiture of the gaming business last year. Management is working to better communicate the company’s free cash flow generation and increasing capital return story with its long-dated, recurring revenue contracts. We see Brightstar’s near 7% dividend yield as attractive though remain Hold rated, awaiting catalysts to rightsize valuation. We make some modest cadence tweaks to 2026E (mostly U.K. contract loss timing) with no change to full year (remain at midpoint recent guidance).”
Artificial intelligence’s effect
Jefferies’ David Katz on March 12 discussed the use of artificial intelligence in gaming:
“We believe gaming operators are likely to expand the use of AI to support customer acquisition, engagement and retention through more targeted and personalized promotional offers at greater speed and scale. Operators with the most extensive loyalty ecosystems, including Caesars, appear best positioned to capture incremental value from these AI-enabled strategies and to defend, if not modestly expand, share versus later adopters. Light & Wonder is also a likely participant given its casinos systems segment which manages gaming floors and customer interactions.”
Gambling.com’s valuation
Texas Capital Securities’ David Bain evaluated Gambling.com:
Following a 1%/1% 4Q25 revenue/EBITDA beat versus consensus estimates, we reduce our 2026E EBITDA to $51 million from $62 million, mirroring the lower end of Gambling.com’s revised guidance range. Our price target moves to $7.50 per share from $9 driven by lower estimates and reduced target valuation, but we believe Gambling.com’s earnings commentary and rationalized estimates allow for stock sentiment improvement. Investor expectations were muted into Gambling.com’s 4Q25 report with anticipation of lower 2026E guidance, in our view. Overall, we believe Gambling.com’s stock valuation overstates performance marketing segment concerns and understates the strength of its data business. Maintain buy.
