Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Analysts favor Gambling.com
“Gambling.com results continue to deviate positively from peers, which should translate into stock performance,” Jefferies’ David Katz wrote on March 20. “Additionally, we continue to view the company’s ~95% gross margin and ~40% EBITDA margin as a profitable play on domestic digital growth, while the aspirational target of $100 million in EBITDA becomes increasingly believable and manifested in the shares. Successful integration of OddsHoldings becomes incremental upside in B2B. Reiterate Buy.”
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities also examined Gambling.com on March 20. “Following a strong preannounce in mid-Feb, Gambling.com officially reported Q4 today in which igaming continued its strong performance, more than offsetting a slowdown in U.S. sports betting (less launches and tough comps). The company reiterated its 2025 guidance in which it expects growth in all regions, including a return to growth in North American online sports betting.
“As the best house in a bad neighborhood, Gambling.com continues to thrive with a runway for continued growth as it continues onwards toward its goal of $100 million of EBITDA. We make modest tweaks to our 2025E/2026E EBITDA with no major changes. Maintain $18 price target and reiterate Buy rating.”
Sportradar’s strong quarter
Katz of Jefferies had a positive outlook on Sportradar March 20.
“The strong quarter, with revenue and EBITDA +22% and +53% Y/Y, respectively, coupled with the solid guide and further upside from the IMG deal ahead of analyst meeting, all support further upside in the shares,” Katz wrote. “In addition, we continue to believe that in-game betting (enabled by Sportradar’s core offering) is the next leg higher for U.S. online sports betting, which should drive estimates and shares higher still, with IMG worth an additional ~$2/share post-close. Reiterate Buy.
“Liquidity concerns” for Bally’s prospects
“Bally’s reported Q4 earnings March 6 and we update our model following this week’s release of the 10-K,” Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas wrote on March 21. “We take our 2025E/2026E EBITDAR up +2%/+4% reflecting the Queen acquisition, offset by international and North American interactive declines. While we see potential upside from the Queen, Chicago and Tropicana, we remain Hold rated on execution risks, leverage and share liquidity concerns. We maintain our price target based on ~6.5x 2026E.
MGM Resorts outlook is stable
On March 20, Fitch Ratings issued a statement on MGM Resorts International, affirming MGM Resorts and its subsidiaries’ (collectively MGM) Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at ‘BB-‘. “The rating outlook is stable. The subsidiary includes MGM China Holdings Limited. Fitch has also affirmed MGM’s senior secured debt at ‘BB+’ with a Recovery Rating of ‘RR1’ and the unsecured debt at ‘BB-‘/’RR4’.”
