Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
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DoubleDown revenue estimates higher
Josh Nichols of B Riley Securities on February 9 looked at DoubleDown Interactive:
“Our revenue estimate of $100 million is slightly above the $99 million consensus and +21.7% year-over-year, with social casino revenue accounting for 83% of sales +13.3% year-over-year, boosted by WHOW Game’s first full quarterly contribution, while SuprNation iCasino revenue at 17% of sales is +90% year-over-year. We do expect some modest sequential organic social casino revenue growth that signals a gradual recovery in DoubleDown’s core cash engine. Our EBITDA projection of $38 million is in line with consensus, with margin compression to 38.3% from 42.7% in 4Q24 driven by increased SuprNation mix and WHOW integration costs.”
Online sports betting, igaming among investor concerns
In a February 8 note, Jefferies’ David Katz noted investors are asking about online sports betting and igaming:
“Based on our marketing and call flow, investors continue attempting to make sense of the sports betting landscape and predictions markets involvement, as well as the role of igaming in the US and abroad. DraftKings announced on February 7 its agreement with Crypto.com to expand its offering into non-sports markets. The questions remain among investors on the degree to which predictions is taking share from US market leaders, and we believe it is marginally in legalized states with more coming outside the regulated landscape. Further, the question of how predictions plays out from a regulatory perspective, with broad concerns over safety but consensus that there’s no evident impediment to it continuing to grow.”
Las Vegas Sands exhibits strong metrics in Macau
In a February 6 note, Fitch Ratings upgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings for Las Vegas Sands, Sands China, and Marina Bay Sands, collectively known as Las Vegas Sands, to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-‘. Fitch also has upgraded the senior unsecured bonds and revolver at Las Vegas Sands and Sands China to ‘BBB’ and Marina Bay Sand’s secured revolver and term loan to ‘BBB’. The rating outlook is Stable.
“The rating reflects improved credit metrics, strong performance in Singapore, and a continued but slightly weaker-than-expected rebound in the Macao market,” a release stated.
“Las Vegas Sands benefits from its scale in Macau, competitive market positions in Macau and Singapore, and robust free cash flow generation. This is offset by a relatively heavy capital program and potential weakness in the Chinese economy.”
“The Stable outlook reflects continued strength in Singapore and slow improvement in Macao as well as steady credit metrics.”
Diverse holdings benefit MGM Resorts
Macquarie Group’s Chad Beynon released a note on February 6 about MGM Resorts International:
“Diversification remains a key positive for MGM (58% Vegas, 25% Regional, 11% Macau, 6% Digital), as well as its higher end asset portfolio. We expect several catalysts in 2026, including BetMGM value, Japan and Dubai investor credit, and continued healthy capital returns with already a 50% reduction in shares over the last five years. We are calling for year-over-year 2026 EBITDA growth as follows: +6% Macau, +2% Vegas, -5% Regionals (+0% ex-Northfield Park), and $167 million BetMGM EBITDA from its share of the JV (+108 million year-over-year).”
