Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Caesars and Golden Entertainment outlooks
David Bain of Texas Capital Securities on July 28 wrote that the firm is “lowering Caesars’ and Golden Entertainment’s 2025E EBITDAR estimates 2.6%/2.%, while our 2026E estimates are essentially unchanged. 2025E reductions primarily reflect acute Las Vegas’ summer seasonality ahead of likely under-modeled 4Q25E/2026E positive impacts from convention growth. Despite estimate adjustments, we believe Caesars’ stock setup has strengthened, and Golden Entertainment’s remains undervalued.”
Churchill Downs results
David Katz of Jefferies on July 27 looked at Churchill Downs’ second-quarter results that “included revenue of $934.4 million (vs. our $895 million) and Adjusted EBITDA of $450.9 million (vs. our $430.6 million),” he wrote. “The Live and Historical Racing segment outperformed our estimates, notably the Virginia and Kentucky properties. The company also announced a new $500 share buyback program. Management clearly outlined Derby growth catalysts for 2026 including: 1) Ticket pricing; 2) broadcast rights; 3) wagering; 4) sponsorships and 5) renovations to the Finish Line Suites and Mansion.
“Combined with an improving outlook in Virginia and Kentucky, we believe top-line concerns are satisfied through 2026. More near-term the focus will be on the recent Salem, New Hampshire acquisition and the capital and earnings opportunities going forward. Price target increases to $131, reiterate Buy.”
GLPI results inline
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities remarked on Gaming and Leisure Property’s second-quarter investors’ call.
“GLPI Q2 adjusted funds from operations came in inline to us with narrowed 2025 AFFO/share guidance slightly below the Street at the midpoint,” Jonas wrote July 25. “The overall pipeline remains promising as GLPI reiterated that progress is being made at the Bally’s Chicago project while it continues to engage with the tribes on potential deals. We roll through the quarter and keep our estimates largely intact as well as our $60 price target unchanged. We continue to favor GLPI despite tenant concerns given the company’s industry expertise and reliable stream of cashflows.
Boyd investors’ call
Dan Politzer of J. P. Morgan on July 24 looked at Boyd, noting that second-quarter “Adjusted EBITDAR was +3% vs J. P. Morgan, and +5% vs. Street, with upside from Las Vegas locals and unrated play. Post its 5% FanDuel sale, Boyd raised its quarterly share repurchase target to $150 million from $100 million (on annual basis, equates to ~10% of market cap). Boyd’s Las Vegas locals business showed positive revenue growth for the first time since 1Q23 (positive read-thru to RRR). We believe Boyd deliberately tried to stave off M&A speculation given its low pro forma leverage, but we forecast Boyd will return to its mid-2x range in FY26 (capex + share repo).”
