As Nevada is set to release its April gaming numbers Friday, followed by tourism officials releasing visitation totals, Wall Street analysts are becoming more optimistic on a Las Vegas rebound.
On Thursday, the Las Vegas airport reported that passenger traffic fell 7% in April. Harry Reid International Airport said 4.37 million passengers went through the airport last month, down from 4.71 million in April 2025. For the year, passenger traffic is down nearly 6%. Airport traffic levels, however, aren’t always an indicator of gaming or tourism numbers, as evidenced by visitor counts up less than 1% this year. The airport counts also include Las Vegas residents who travel outside the state and don’t include drive-in traffic from California that’s up nearly 3% this year.
Domestic passengers fell 6.6% in April, while international counts fell 12.4% led by continued steep decline in Canadian travelers. Even many Mexican and European airlines showed declines with a few exceptions.
In his latest Las Vegas room survey, Barry Jonas with Truist Securities said while Las Vegas is so far showing a positive second quarter, April was soft. However, it was more than offset by a “very strong May and solid June. Momentum continues into July with rates up across the board. July shows a resilient high end and meaningful month-over-month improvements at the middle to low end. While we look at the survey more directionally than exact, we are coming away more positive on the Strip alongside evidence from our Las Vegas perception survey highlighting its overall resilience.”
April finished lower with the Strip -9%, MGM -16% and Caesars -13%. April weekend rates were particularly soft, with the Strip -14%, MGM -14%, and Caesars -22% and weekdays were lower as well, Jonas said.
In May, rates are trending solidly with the Strip up 11%, MGM 3%, and Caesars 25% Jonas said. May weekend rates increased on the Strip by 16%, MGM 4%, and Caesars 32%, largely boosting the month. Weekdays were solid as well.
“We note that Caesars is the primary benefactor of the State Farm conference in May,” Jonas said. “Overall, April rates weighed down the Strip, though offset by a strong May and solid June. We are not seeing much discrepancy in weekend vs. weekday rates in Q2 thus far.”
June is also up, but softer month over month with the Strip up 3%, MGM down 1%, and CZR up 7%. Weekends were a bit lower, but partially offset with solid weekdays rates, respectively, Jonas said.
The early July reading is encouraging, with Strip rates +9%, MGM +9%, and Caesars +3%, Jonas said.
“We caution that it’s still early in our July read and could see meaningful changes week-over-week,” Jonas said.
In a note to investors this week from J.P. Morgan, Daniel Politzer said they are upgrading MGM Resort International’s stock to overweight with a new price target of $46, implying a 20% upside. The stock closed at $42.93 on Thursday, up more than $7 in the past week from $35.60.
“Our more favorable view on MGM reflects growing conviction that MGM Las Vegas Strip EBITDAR estimates have bottomed, and that growth should improve in the coming months off of easier comparisons and against the backdrop of a resilient U.S. leisure traveler,” Politzer said.
“The impact of inflation/fuel prices requires monitoring, but value-oriented promotions and about 50% of Las Vegas Strip traffic from drive-in customers should support demand. Looking ahead, we are more comfortable with the Strip’s supply/demand setup into Hard Rock’s fourth quarter of 2027 opening, as our deep dive suggests cannibalization risk may be modest or best case drive demand.”
Politzer said there’s no shortage of cheap gaming stocks, but MGM is one of the few where estimates are poised to move higher. MGM moves in the direction of Strip estimates and Morgan’s conviction is growing that they’re meetable, if not beatable, after bottoming this past February.
“Our room-rate survey points to modestly improving demand: MGM’s second quarter rates are +1% year-over-year as of May 8, versus -2% year-over-year when we sampled in February. In the second quarter, May appears to be the strongest month for year-over-year growth (programming/events), the lower-end leisure customer appears stable, while the high-end remains strong. This should support normalized Strip EBITDAR growth in 2026.”
