Regional gaming will be down for April, according to a J.P. Morgan analysis of casino foot traffic published on Wednesday that showed 8.3 percent lower visitation to outlying gambling venues.
Based on the results, Morgan analysts extrapolated a three percent dip in April 2026 gaming grosses. This was despite a flow of tax refunds and an equal number of weekend days (eight) as in April 2025. Stock analyst Daniel Politzer wrote that the data “suggests trends a touch below typical seasonality.”
According to Politzer’s research, tax refunds are up six percent year over year, with amount per refund up 11 percent. “Assuming a total of ~$430 billion in total 2026 tax refunds,” he wrote, “approximately 73 percent of total tax refund dollars have been received thus far, vs. 81 percent this same time last year.”
To track visitation, Politzer followed 17 regional casinos, not including highly seasonal markets. That excluded Atlantic City and New Orleans, among others. High-end properties, where a few players of high value can skew financial results, were also omitted.
Politzer’s data implies a worsening of a regional trend, which saw a 1.8 percent miss in March against a forecast 2.5 percent. In February, gaming tallies were up 4.4 percent, compared to Morgan’s 4.3 percent prediction.
January regional grosses rose 4.3 percent, where Politzer had forecast a two percent uptick. December, however, was predicted to be just 0.1 percent off, but saw a miss of 2.5 percent.
November grosses rose three percent against a predicted 0.9 percent. In October, a 5.2 percent rise in predicted grosses turned into an actual six percent surge.
