Polling industry figures, Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella found “high-end Las Vegas continuing to be relatively solid, while … lower-end Las Vegas continues to be relatively weak, though we sense some optimism moving forward,” aided by the convention calendar.
Pizzella’s observations were made on the heels of the Deutsche Bank Gaming & Lodging Conference, held the week of November 9 in Miami. His views were shared in a November 17 investor note.
Speaking with operators of casinos in Macau, Pizzella said, “They remain constructive over the growth outlook, though month to month may be volatile from hold and market share dynamics.” In the digital-gambling sphere, the outlook was more uncertain, due to the disruptive effects of prediction markets and volatile NFL outcomes.
Prediction markets were a dominant topic at the conclave, particularly how state-level regulators would respond to them. Pizzella was also on the lookout for economic fallout from the 43-day shutdown of the federal government, not discerning any yet.
Brick-and-mortar gaming operators were found to be taking a wait-and-see stance on prediction markets, particularly in light of state regulators warning them off of this newest iteration of gambling. Another factor staying their hands was the legally uncertain status of prediction markets, with multiple cases winding their way through the legal system. Casino companies anticipated a Supreme Court ruling on the matter in one to two years.
Other complicating factors were the penetration depth of the markets, uncertainty surrounding how much it would cost to enter them, and whether they had liquidity and at what cost?
Also keeping watch on prediction markets were business-to-business providers, citing the many stakeholders affected, including regulators and sports leagues. However, “We get the sense the B2B operators are positive on the prospects for the prediction markets, as they can offer products around settlement, integrity services, and marketing/advertising, in addition to potential live data,” Pizzella wrote.
The NFL continued to be a source of heartburn, given the volatility engendered by an 18-week season (plus playoffs). Four games per week were said to be driving most of the action, further heightening the volatility.
By contrast, optimism characterized other sports betting chatter. “Operators were optimistic we would see incremental OSB state legalization in the next couple years, with the emergence of the prediction markets being a catalyst for legalization,” Pizzella reported.
Texas and California were the foci of discussion, although it was felt that little could be accomplished in the Golden State without its tribes being behind it. The Lone Star State “is more a matter of principle and beliefs, rather than bringing in tax revenue.”
Pizzella thought it unlikely that more than one additional state would legalize igaming in 2026. However, “Operators continue to take the approach that numerous shots on goal will yield something in the near term regarding igaming legalization.”
For Pizzella, the linchpin was Illinois, which if it legalizes igaming might set off a domino effect in neighboring Midwest states. He felt Maryland was actually the likeliest state in play, especially with the imminent completion of Bally’s Chicago, and the authorization of as many as three New York City casinos providing a disincentive for Illinois and New York State to go the igaming route.
There was no clear read on the merger-and-acquisition front, “with the appetite largely depending on the current shape of the balance sheet. For those open to potential M&A, the message is that they will continue to remain disciplined, making sure it is the right asset in the right markets and makes sense financially.”
Although Pizzella described trends in regional gambling as “historically muted,” he was confident of upcoming gains. These, he felt, would be driven by new projects at outlying casinos. Operators were of the same mind. The analyst noted that in the 2010-24 period, regional-casino revenue (up 7 percent) had not kept pace with inflation (jumping 32 percent).
Regionally, Caesars Entertainment was said to be continuing “targeted promotions,” but Penn Entertainment and Boyd Gaming were largely refraining. Deutsche Bank’s own data showed Caesars out in front on promos, followed at some distance by Penn and not at all by Boyd. “Broadly speaking, though, the data appears to indicate a relatively rational promotional environment overall,” summarized Pizzella.
Regional gains since May 2025 were described as in the two percent-four percent range. “Operators noted the solid trends have continued into October, with sustained strength from the core customer,” a trend that Pizzella was told was continuing through November and hopefully to year’s end, with the holiday calendar bad for Las Vegas, but good for regional gambling.
Pizzella added, “While operators remain optimistic moving forward for overall regional gaming trends, investors have noted regional comparisons will continue to stiffen as we move forward, partially driven by increased spending post the presidential election last year.”
Las Vegas Strip operators conceded that recent months had been weaker than normal, though stabilization was apparent in the market. The mainstay of this was the luxury customer, apparently undeterred. Leisure spend was “modestly” better and convention and group business was coming back to Sin City.
“We expect October to be a solid month, November to be a tougher month calendar wise, though still solid, as we believe F1 is shaping up well,” Pizzella said. MGM Resorts International reported year-over-year increases related to the Las Vegas Grand Prix, while Caesars expected a better Formula One Weekend than in 2024.
A midweek New Year’s Eve complicated the December outlook for Las Vegas. However, National Finals Rodeo-related business was said to be “solid.”
Pizzella said, “Operators remain cautiously optimistic, as the summer is in the rearview mirror.” Drivers of optimism were strong convention business in 2026 (with Caesars reporting best-ever levels of bookings) and Golden Knights games, which it was thought would restore tourism from Canada.
According to Pizzeria, there was “anecdotal evidence” of improved value propositions on the Strip. Also, “While a lot can change, we think the longer-term setup bodes well and the market will adjust to the leisure softness.”
Locals-casino operators were perceiving core strength in their customer base. “The destination market, or Strip-adjacent properties, continue to struggle,” Pizzella cautioned, “given the relative weakness on the Las Vegas Strip, though 4Q25 bookings have gotten less bad, so are not getting worse.”
Still, the locals sector was optimistic, thanks to recent wage increases, population growth and a much more diversified Las Vegas economy. Also cited were “benefits from the recent tax bill, including deduction for tips, overtime, seniors, and larger standard deduction.”
