The prospects for integrated casino resort implementation in Japan got a bit brighter over the weekend with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s victory in the parliamentary snap elections.
Abe’s Liberal Democrat Party, in tandem with its coalitional partner Komeito, now holds a two-thirds majority in the Lower House of Parliament, giving it an expanded ability to tackle its priority issues – which include bringing to completion the legalization of casinos.
“Prime Minister Abe and the victory by the Liberal Democratic Party are a positive for the future development of Integrated Resorts in Japan,” emphasized Global Market Advisors, a gaming and hospitality-focused market research firm, in a post-election brief released this week.
One of these priorities is the passage of legislation that would lay out the specifics for integrated resort implementation and address the problem gambling concerns that have generated significant pushback against casinos in the country.
“[The supermajority] allows for the continued development of Integrated Resorts through the expected passage of the IR Implementation Bill after the passage of the Responsible Gaming Bill in the coming months to a year,” GMA notes.
It emphasizes that, while other issues such as North Korea, taxation and constitutional revisions are also on the legislative docket, casinos rank high on that list:
“Integrated resorts will be a part of the overall agenda as demonstrated by the most recent visit of Cabinet Secretary Makoto Nakagawa to Las Vegas and Washington, D.C.”
Japan’s parliamentary body, known as the Diet, passed legislation enabling integrated resorts in December 2016, but the push to enact more specific legislation that lays out the implementation specifics stalled in 2017 amid public opposition and diminished political capital for Abe and the LDP.
Abe, who had been suffering from dwindling approval numbers throughout 2017, announced the snap election last month in an attempt to capitalize on an uptick in political support stemming from his aggressive stance towards North Korea’s increasingly militant behavior.
The election result also improves Abe’s chances of winning a third consecutive term as prime minister during next September’s party vote, meaning that he will likely be afforded extra time to push the process through should efforts this year fall short.
While the IR process could easily be stonewalled should more pressing national security matters unfold, it’s realistic that properties could open their doors by late 2024, GMA reckons, should a responsible gaming bill be passed within the next six months, an implementation bill thereafter, and then a smooth execution of the request for proposal (RFP) process.
The brief emphasizes that the lynchpin to the process will be the passage of a responsible gaming bill, which will then open the door to the rest of the process by addressing casino opponents’ primary point of contention.
It states:
“While there may be several current drafts of this bill, this is by far the most important bill to pass as it leads to the IR Implementation Bill. However, its significance is far more reaching than that because it addresses one of the main concerns of the Japanese people – problem gambling.”
The bill must ameliorate problem gambling issues not just with regards to casinos, but also Japan’s $200 billion underground pachinko market.
This will open the door for the integrated resort implementation bill to be debated and passed. This bill must codify the number and locations of casino licenses to be issued, as well as regulatory issues such as gaming floor space and size limitations, how that space is counted, whether credit should be extended to players, whether entry fees should be charged to patrons and – if so – what amount.
“Once this occurs and the regulatory framework has been established, the race for the IR opportunity in Japan will officially begin,” concludes GMA.
