Mattress Mack likes to bet on “sure things.” That’s why he plunked down $2.4 million a few weeks ago on the gray colt Essential Quality to win the Kentucky Derby. For handicappers and bettors like Mack, they first look at bloodlines. Quality’s sire was Tapit, a horse with Arabian ancestors who had dominated the sire lists by setting earnings records in 2014 and 2015. He sired multiple Breeder’s Cup and Belmont Stakes winners.
Next bettors look at results. Essential Quality was undefeated in five previous races. He won earlier at Churchill Downs in the Maiden Special Weight race. He also won the Breeder’s Futurity Stakes and Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. In those early races he even defeated other Derby contenders like the promising Hot Rod Charlie. Starting at 2-1, with post odds at 5-2, it was clear that Essential Quality would win easily.
But shortly after they finished playing “My Old Kentucky Home,” Essential Quality stumbled out of the gate and finished fourth. Medina Spirit (12-1), who absolutely no one mentioned prior to the starting gun, led the race from start to finish.
The Monday Morning Quarterbacks quickly retreated and claimed Essential Quality was good, but certainly not great. They said he went too wide in the turns. He had a poor start. They even noted that his owner, the prime minister of the United Arab Emirates, tried 11 previous times to win the Derby and failed. Apparently, no one told Mattress Mack.
It can be a lot like that in the slot machine business. Sometimes, machines make it; sometimes even those games with high expectations get left behind. But if I had his money (and was as crazy as Mattress Mack), I’d bet $4.8 million that Buffalo Link, which is being released across the country this month, will be a big hit. If you consider the “pandemic pent-up demand” being shown by slot players recently, you can safely wager that there’s not going to be any upsets with this one.
Let’s start with the machine’s bloodlines. That begins with Scott Olive and his game studio. They are based out of Brookvale, near the northern beaches of Sydney, Australia. It’s also Scott’s own beginnings that built a foundation for his success.
Whenever I’m asked how to have a successful career in gaming, I give the same advice: “get a good education, then start working at the very bottom.” That is exactly what Olive did. In fact, even before he began his technical university studies, Scott’s father got him a position at a local pokie club (for those of us in the northern hemi, pokies are the Aussie slang for slot machines). For 12 months, Olive was picking up glasses before he advanced to a bar back. When his university studies were complete, he worked first as a slot attendant, advanced to analytics and (importantly) played the pokies whenever he could.
HRG’s Scott Olive
Slot directors around the world are quite thankful that Olive then responded to a help wanted ad from Aristocrat for a mathematician. He credits the timing of joining the company in those early years with much of his success. He realized that he could pick the brains of the veteran game designers who grew up with reel spinners, but also work with the latest emerging video concepts. By 1997, video games were dominating Down Under, but had yet to make it big in the US. Scott helped change that.
In case you aren’t familiar with his early work, his “Cash Express,” “Millionizer,” and “Penny Train” themes were major breakthroughs in progressive video slots.
Most pundits have credited Aristocrat’s “math” with the reason for their success in video slots, and Olive was certainly one of those mathematicians. However, he cites his time in the pokies watching and playing games as an even bigger factor. “You have to get the feeling right, along with the math.”
After 10 years with Aristocrat, Olive joined another Aristocrat ex-pat named Kent Young to form True Blue Gaming. Together, they developed several successful themes for others, before the firm was eventually sold to Aruze. At that time, Olive created his own HRG studio (High Roller Gaming).
It’s with HRG where Olive became legendary. He became the only one to knock Wheel of Fortune out of first place after others tried for decades. The achievement is probably what earned him “Hall of Fame” honors from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, LLC at their annual awards event two months ago.
Lightning Link (from Aristocrat and HRG) set a new bar for performance, progressives and game mechanics that everyone has attempted to copy. Unfortunately, Lightning didn’t stay Number One for as long as WOF did, but only because another of their games, Dragon Link, took that spot after just two years and still holds the position today with Lightning in the No. 2 spot. Not bad.
After bloodlines, the handicappers look at track record and past performance. Did I mention Lightning Link and Dragon Link? ‘Nuff said.
While the math and volatility on those two games is different, since one targets low denomination players and the other high, they do share much of the “Link” mechanic, especially the “hold and spin” concept.
The other half of the expected performance for Buffalo Link comes from (duh!) Buffalo™. Without question, it is the strongest “base,” or “standard, non-premium,” game ever released. After 15+ years on casino floors, it still ranks well above house averages, despite the fact that thousands of units have been deployed. Remarkably, several casinos have actually dedicated marketing campaigns to tout their selection of Buffalos. From the beginning, almost every competitor has rolled out clones, but none of them ever matched the original, except when done by Aristocrat themselves. There are currently 24 Buffalo families, with multiple themes in each. (For those into trivia, the full list is in the Notes below.)
Most say the magic comes from Buffalo’s unique math balance between high and low volatility. The mechanic that most often delivers that math is the free spins that can retrigger even more free spins.
I think it also has a lot to do with the iconic sound of a screeching western Red-Tailed Hawk. (Interestingly, the designers thought this sound was a bald eagle? Aussies apparently know as little about North American birds of prey as I do about kangaroos and wombats).
The final bit of genetic material that will contribute to Buffalo Link’s probable success is the cabinet. When Buffalo was released almost two decades ago, it arrived on the Aristocrat MAV 500™. That was, and is, one of the most non-descript, plain-Jane cabinets ever. It succeeded only because Aristocrat had mastered video slot machine math way ahead of everyone else.
Things have changed today. Whether it’s the blinding array of LEDs on AGS’s Orion, the 4-D graphics from IGT, Konami’s Concerto side lights, the multiple curves on Scientific Games monitors, Aruze’s triple-screen Muzos, ATI’s double arcs or the Sky Towers from IT; cabinets matter today. So does signage.
Aristocrat’s Jon Hanlin
Jon Hanlin, Aristocrat Gaming’s Sr. VP of Commercial Strategy & Business Analytics, verified that Buffalo Link will launch on the new Mars X™ Portrait cabinet in multiple configurations and noted that it’s being well received, “We’re excited to see a new game receive such enthusiasm.”
Pandemic analytics demonstrated to many operators that not only did they have too much weak theme diversity on their floors; they also were not providing enough strong titles in sufficient quantities. Most have vowed to not make that mistake with Buffalo Link.
The Mars X Portrait cabinet, released in February, has been doing very well in non-premium themes. But it’s still unusual for a “premium” title with this much interest to be released on a “standard” cabinet. Even more surprising, Hanlin has been assuring customers that Buffalo Link will be “attractively priced” even though it is a participation game. That is big news, since before the recent management changes at Aristocrat, prices for their premium products were hitting industry highs. Hanlin says, “We didn’t make it a wide area progressive. We are trying to drive awareness of the game coming and to create an environment where it will be massively installed across the country by the end of May. So far, it’s the fastest growing game we’ve ever seen in the funnel.”
Olive and Hanlin’s teams have been working together on configurations and signage to complement the launch. The games will be in 4, 6 and 8-unit configurations with matching sign packages. They are “even doing a special 12-pack with a globe on top for the opening of the new Resorts World property in Las Vegas.” The standard denomination mix will be 1¢, 2¢,5¢ and 10¢. A 25¢ version is also optional.
Will it work? Olive is pretty convinced it will. The new release is the 33rd version of the game his team has produced. They began the basic Buffalo/Link concept nearly five years ago. Hanlin said, “Version 16 was very good…but now.”
The problem was getting the math right. How do you match Buffalo’s “free spins” against Link’s “hold and spin” and still get the critical balance of volatility? A lot of folks think they’ve done it just right again.
Leading slot influencer Brian Christopher was invited into the Aristocrat showrooms during the pandemic shutdowns to give the prototype a test ride. His reaction, which you can find on YouTube, is classic Christopher gushing: “For the first time ever, there’s a multiplier on the last reel of a Buffalo! I don’t think they’ve ever done that before. I cannot wait to see this game in a casino.”
Neither can I.
NOTES:
- Buffalo (Classic version)
- Cash Express various families
- Buffalo Chief
- Buffalo Diamond
- Buffalo Gold Collection
- Buffalo Gold Collection 3R
- Buffalo Gold Revolution
- Buffalo Gold Revolution 3R
- Buffalo Grand
- Buffalo Inferno
- Buffalo Legends
- Buffalo Link
- Buffalo Rush
- Buffalo Stampede
- Buffalo Thundering 7s
- Buffalo Xtreme Mystery
- Buffalo Deluxe
- Buffalo Deluxe Xtreme Mystery
- Buffalo Moon
- Buffalo Win Your Way
- Buffalo Legends Xtreme Mystery
- Fast Cash
- Wonder 4 – Various families
- Buffalo Instant Hit 5R
