Las Vegas Sands will be the first casino operator to hold a call with Wall Street analysts Wednesday as third-quarter earnings kick off.
Boyd Gaming will be the first Las Vegas operator to report Thursday and will provide a glimpse of the locals market. Churchill Downs also announces earnings on Thursday.
Red Rock Resorts reports Tuesday, along with Caesars Entertainment, providing the first look into Strip earnings. That will be followed by MGM Resorts International reporting next Wednesday, along with Rush Street Interactive. Wynn Resorts won’t report its earnings until Nov. 6, the same day as Golden Entertainment, Penn Entertainment, and Full House.
Steven Pizzella, an analyst with Deutsche Bank, and Chad Beynon, an analyst with Macquarie Equity Research, released reports looking ahead to Las Vegas operators and others for the third and fourth quarters after meeting with them at G2E.
Caesars
Going into G2E, Pizzella said expectations were for Caesars to sound incrementally more positive heading into the fourth quarter, especially in Las Vegas, given the softer than normal seasonal summer slowdown and improving group calendar. Instead, the stock has been down, driven by the tone that the fourth-quarter group pace was less bullish than expectations. Going from the second-quarter call commentary of a strong group calendar, he cited a less constructive outlook on the fourth-quarter group pace from management and the view that Caesars will continue to promote within the regional portfolio – not just in competitive markets – but also markets not impacted by competitive supply.
In Las Vegas, it’s expected that 2026 will be stronger and weekends are still firm. The lower end continues to struggle, while the high end is performing the best, Pizzella said.
Beynon said Las Vegas summer softness and regional noise have played out as Caesars management has messaged, but is holding an outperform rating with a strong digital, stable regionals, and Las Vegas group pace picking up.
“Amid the leisure softness, there has been a lot of discourse, particularly on social media, about the value proposition of Vegas, but management highlighted the vast array of experiences available as well as the value proposition of the city from a convention perspective,” Beynon said. “Looking past the third quarter softness, 2025 should be a record year for groups on fourth quarter strength, while 2026 should set another group record given first half strength. Digital continues to grow toward the $500 million target with growth in all key metrics, and management continues to expect to outpace market growth despite tough comps and noted no impact from prediction markets.”
Red Rock Resorts
Pizzella believes locals trends continue to be resilient, with solid fundamentals in the market driven by population growth. Wealthy people continue to move to the market for the lifestyle, lower cost of living, and housing market.
For the quarter to date, Las Vegas locals slot handle is up 5% year-over-year as July was up 4.7% year-over-year and August was up 5.2% year-over-year. He said they believe trends remain consistent driven by VIP since the segment continues to do relatively better than the lower end of the database.
“The impact of the tax bill continues to be underappreciated, as Red Rock Resorts will be one of the primary beneficiaries, with customers potentially getting refund checks starting in February of next year, increasing discretionary income,” Pizzella said.
In regards to the next development project, Pizzella believes Red Rock is weighing development on the 128-acre Las Vegas Boulevard South site at Cactus Avenue, which would be a development akin to Red Rock Resort in scope. They’re also considering the second phase of the Durango Casino & Resort, most likely the least risky move, he said.
“Cactus and/or Durango Phase II is most likely at this stage, with respect to what is next,” Pizzella said.
Beynon said Red Rock continues to highlight broad-based strength across the portfolio and database and not
just in carded play, including a continued ramp at Durango with increased visitation, higher spend per visit, and elevated win from carded customers.
“Management remains encouraged by the backfilling of cannibalized revenue at Red Rock Casino and expects a full recovery within two years,” Beynon said. “Red Rock Resorts has several growth projects underway, including Durango expansion, Sunset, and Green Valley Ranch, which will cause some disruption this summer, while the North Fork (Northern California tribal casino) project remains on track for a fourth quarter of 2026 opening. Our main thesis on Red Rock Resorts rests in its multi-year development pipeline, asset quality, and ownership of assets.”
Golden Entertainment
Pizzella said Golden Entertainment management noted the biggest piece of uncertainty in the business continues to be the Strip.
“Golden noted that weaker Strip demand from the summer continued into July, August improved as bookings started to stabilize, and September improved further as we believe occupancy was flat year-over-year, though rates were down 10% to 15%,” Pizzella said. “Management remains cautious on the fourth-quarter outlook, thinking it won’t get worse from here, though the question is how much better will it get. We believe October looks OK and there are some big events in both November and December.”
About 65% of the gaming business is rated and Pizzella believes it is flat to up modestly in the third quarter overall. Retail is still struggling, though has been improving since July as the Strip gets busier.
“Golden remains committed to exploring options to unlock shareholder value and continues to believe the equity is trading below the intrinsic real estate value,” Pizzella said. “One option to unlock value includes a potential sale leaseback transaction.”
Beynon said similar to what some of the other Strip operators say, management noted Las Vegas softness in the third quarter, but expects it to improve, particularly toward the end of the year.
“Away from the Strip, management sounded bullish on tavern, Las Vegas locals, and Laughlin trends,” Beynon said. “Management expects these areas to benefit in 2026 from recent legislation (tax relief on tips, overtime and additional tax deductions for seniors). Longer term, we still rank the southern Nevada gaming market as one of the best in the U.S. given its positive forecasted economics.”
Churchill Downs
Beynon said Churchill Downs remains positive on the ability to grow the Kentucky Derby weekend and expand and improve business in Virginia and New Hampshire. Within regionals, trends remain healthy and management believes the majority of the property remains core to the thesis, however, the company would entertain certain opportunities, he said.
“At these levels, Churchill Downs represents one of the best risk/rewards in regional gaming, given its proven capital management strategy, multiyear runway for mid-single-digit growth from low-risk projects, and real estate ownership, which includes one the most iconic assets in the U.S. and allows it to push through inflation better than competitors,” Beynon said.
Rush Street Interactive
Rush Street continues to see strong momentum following an impressive first half of 2025, in which the company posted records for revenue, profitability, cash flow, and users, Beynon said. Revenue for the year are expected to grow 20% year-over-year while EBITDA is expected to be up 50%+, highlighting the strength of RSI’s igaming-focused strategy, evident by the operator’s ability to maintain its igaming market share in the most competitive U.S. markets, he said.
“RSI management noted that they continue to acquire players more efficiently as marketing spend moderates,” Beynon said. “Following our meeting, we reiterate that RSI is still an attractive way to play the expanding online market given its lower relative exposure to sports hold, niche igaming following in key markets, and increasingly diversified global presence in Canada and Latin America.”
