New Jersey reported its gross gaming revenue for January on Friday, February 14th. January was not the best of months for the gaming industry in New Jersey. Total GGR was $553.9 million, down 0.9%. Overall, gaming in New Jersey has been on a roll since 2018 with the advent of igaming and sports wagering. Total GGR including casinos, igaming, and sports was up 46% in that period.
However, the devil as always is in the details; casino revenue in 2024 was up 12% over 2018. Internet gambling in the Garden State went from $298.7 million to $2.387 billion and sports increased from $94.0 million to $1.094 billion. Clearly, the growth in New Jersey is not in casino gaming, but igaming and sports. The story is similar in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut, all of which have mobile sports wagering and igaming.
The January numbers in New Jersey were not that bad. The slight decline was caused by a drop in sports betting handle and win as compared to January 2024; it amounts to a difference of $48.3 million. And that may be one of the narratives of 2025: In mature mobile markets, sports betting may have peaked and be leveling off. In 2024, the handle in New Jersey declined in August, September, October, November, and December.
That might or might not be the narrative in New York, where handle grew year over year throughout 2024 or nationally, where the handle was up 29% in 2024. Much of the increase is due to additional states with mobile wagering; that trend will slow dramatically in 2025.
At the end of the year, analysts, commentators, and journalists make lists of the big stories of the year and identify trends. At the beginning of the year, those same people try to identify trends for the coming year.
In New Jersey, developing the new narrative has begun. The Press of Atlantic City quoted Jane Bokunewicz, director of the Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming, Hospitality and Tourism at Stockton University. “While internet gaming again surpassed brick-and-mortar for total gaming revenue, brick-and-mortar still realized a year-over-year increase in January, despite harsher winter weather than we’ve seen recently. This is an encouraging sign for the year ahead.”
That is a positive forecast, that even as igaming gains steam, the brick-and-mortar guys are moving ahead of last year. Play NJ opined that in February, Atlantic City casinos would probably see a boost from Super Bowl parties and Presidents Day. But the Boardwalk gang still had to get through the rest of the winter and spring before celebrating a successful summer.
If left to me, the narrative for Atlantic City in 2025 would be a continuation of the trends of 2023 and 2024. The casinos will struggle to produce more revenue than they did in the previous year and the year before that. Sports betting will continue to be strong — a billion-dollar handle is nothing to sneeze at. But the days of double-digit growth are probably over. And that leaves us with igaming. There are no signs that its growth is slowing, although it would be unrealistic to expect 20% or more growth month after month to continue forever.
And that becomes the real question for New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, West Virginia, Rhode Island, and Delaware. How long can the growth continue and what will be the peak? The peak must be related to population, so per-capita spending will eventually be established. In 2024, the citizens of New Jersey wagered $12.0 billion on sporting events, $131.06 per person. New York generated $22.6 billion in wagers, $115.98 per person. That is a place to start, according to Legal Sports Report. Since 2018, the win in sports has averaged 8.6 percent. Igaming is probably somewhat higher, but that gives an idea of the “handle” for igaming. Eventually, we should have two sets of numbers: the amount wagered per person in each state and the amount each lost.
It will probably take several more years before the igaming spend per person is established. The trend in New Jersey has been rapid growth in win, but on a declining curve. In 2024, the growth over 2023 was 24%, in 2023 19%, in 2022 21%, in 2021 40%, 2020 101%, and 61% percent in 2019. January’s 20.9% is probably what can be expected in 2025. By the same token, casinos declined in 2024, so the 2.6% increase is probably more than can be expected.
And there you have it, my narrative for New Jersey for 2025: The casinos struggle to keep up with the previous year. Sports betting likewise stays flat or declines a little and igaming continues to grow possibly by as much as 20%.
