Tuesday is Election Day, with six important gaming-related ballot questions on various state ballots. Two of them (California and Massachusetts) could have serious future impacts for the industry.
As many of you know, to better publicize these questions (as well raise money for a good cause – Noah’s Animal House in Las Vegas), CDC Gaming has been running a 2014 Election Contest over the past several weeks – and you can still participate up to 6:00 p.m. EST Tuesday night! What have the contest entries shown so far? What does our own panel of experts (Ken Adams, Roger Gros, Aaron Stanley and Howard Stutz) predict will happen election night? And for what it is worth, what do I think will happen? Let’s see!
California – Proposition 48: Ratifying two gaming compacts and exempting execution of the compacts and intergovernmental agreements from the California Environmental Quality Act.
On the surface all this proposition does is ratify an Indian compact (already signed by Governor Brown) to allow the landless North Forks Indian Tribe to build a casino (to be operated by Station Casinos) in Central California on non-reservation land. No big deal, right? NOT! Existing Indian casinos (not wanting additional competition) have mounted serious, well-funded opposition. Plus the recent (and tragic) incidents leading to the closure of Chukchansi Gold have not helped the discussion of Indian casinos in a state where there are serious concerns with where and how expansion should take place, if at all. I don’t think that Prop 48 will pass – which is sad because Station Casinos has an especially strong track record opening and operating California casinos.
Pass: Adams, Gros, Stanley Fail: Compton, Stutz Contest: Pass (57%)
Colorado – Amendment 68: Allowing limited gaming at horse racetracks in the Denver suburbs.
A yes vote would allow the Arapahoe Park horse track (outside Denver) to add casino gambling (currently restricted to three historic towns in Colorado). Any new racetracks in Arapahoe, Mesa or Pueblo countries could offer casino gambling, but only after being in operation for five years. Supporters have sweetened the deal by promising that (a very high) 34% of the revenue from the new games would go to K-12 education. Except for a 1990 casino approval, Colorado voters have turned down any expansion of gambling – and I think they probably will again this time.
Pass: None Fail: Adams, Compton, Gros, Stanley, Stutz Contest: Fail (68%)
Rhode Island – Question 1: Allowing the Newport Grand slot parlor to install table games.
If approved the long-operating Newport Grand slot parlor could add table games (already allowed in the other Rhode Island casino – Twin River). While most in the state tend to lean toward expansion, the fieriest discussion, as you might expect, is among Newport residents, who wonder what the future brings if the issues passes or fails. I think it will pass – but it will be close.
Pass: Compton, Stutz Fail: Adams, Gros, Stanley Contest: Pass (79%)
South Dakota – Amendment Q: Allowing Deadwood casinos to add craps, roulette and keno.
Similar to Rhode Island Amendment Q, this would allow existing Deadwood casinos to add games to the blackjack and slots they already have. Unlike Newport, Deadwood is solidly behind this, and opposition by traditional gambling foes has been minor. Recent polls have been split; my guess is that it will pass, allowing Deadwood to remain competitive.
Pass: Adams, Compton, Stanley, Stutz Fail: Gros Contest: Pass (89%)
Tennessee – Amendment 4: Allowing lotteries that benefit veterans organizations.
An amendment passed about six years ago allowed charitable organizations to have a raffle fundraiser once a year, but essentially excluded veterans organizations. The new amendment corrects the situation. Publicity has been minor, as has the opposition. Helping veterans plays well anywhere, especially in Tennessee.
Pass: Adams, Compton, Gros, Stanley Fail: Stutz Contest: Pass (71%)
Massachusetts – Question 3: Repealing the 2011 law allowing resort casinos.
I saved the biggest for last – Question 3, which would repeal the 2011 Massachusetts law allowing resort casinos. This ballot question (as well as all related Massachusetts casino gaming issues) has received almost daily publicity over the last several months. Everybody in the Bay State (as well as anyone who following gaming industry news) is already well informed about Question 3 – so I will cut to the chase.
In my opinion (in total disagreement with Misters Adams, Gros, Stanley and Stutz, as well as 86% of our contest participants) Question 3 will, unfortunately, pass. Why? Many segments in this highly-educated traditionally liberal (yet still somewhat Puritan) state already look down on casinos. In recent weeks (powered by major newspaper endorsements and organized church pulpit appeals, not to mention very negative publicity from Atlantic City) the momentum has been on the side of Repeal. Long-time residents (as well as Bostonians) are upset that the Massachusetts Gaming Commission (an opera-buffa sideshow that has seriously hurt the pro-gaming cause) chose Wynn’s project over the Mohegan Sun project that would have saved Suffolk Downs and send direct dollars to Boston. While the casino industry and the AGA have put out extensive (and very well-done) advertising, many in the State do feel that they are trying to buy the election (and Bay State voters tend to support the underdog – like George McGovern).
My sources on the ground were unanimously and unquestionably telling me two months ago that Repeal will fail – but all of them have since somewhat hedged their expectations. So, I will predict that on Tuesday Massachusetts voters will pass Question 3, repealing the 2011 law allowing casino gambling – and I really hope to be wrong.
Pass: Compton Fail: Adams, Gros, Stanley, Stutz Contest: Fail (86%)
