Visitation to United States casinos was down 5.4 percent in August and plummeted 17.5 percent from pre-pandemic 2019. These findings were relayed in a September 9 investor note by Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz.
Katz qualified his comments by saying that foot traffic in August was consistent with the rest of the year so far. The data, he said, “supports our view that the greater step back in July was more outlier than trend.” July 2025 saw foot traffic fall 10.1 percent from 2024.
Gross gaming revenue (GGR) numbers from July, Katz wrote, “continued the strong trend we’ve seen since the late spring and we believe August will follow suit as more states report monthly data in the coming days.” He predicted that the data would improve as the industry moves into easier year-over-year comparisons later in 2025.
The shortfall from 2019, Katz argued, “evidences the space available for the recent GGR strength to continue.” He predicted that openings of Churchill Downs’s The Rose in Virginia and Penn Entertainment’s new version of Hollywood Joliet would inspire attendance.
Pennsylvania continued to be a source of strength for the industry, with foot traffic up three percent from July 2024 and 18.8 percent higher than in 2019. However, Massachusetts was only 1.6 percent higher this year and 21.6 percent lower than in 2019, a phenomenon Katz blamed on new direct competition from New Hampshire.
Two markets that were unequivocally adverse were Illinois and Atlantic City. The former slipped 7.2 percent from July 2024 and 19.6 percent from 2019. The latter saw year-over-year footfall decline 1.2 percent from 2024, but tumble 20.7 percent from six years earlier.
“Our take is that the monthly performance reflects the volatile path toward the normalization of traffic trends post-COVID, as well as the heightened competition and renovations in specific locations,” Katz opined of the two jurisdictions.
Another market facing headwinds was Detroit, where the three casinos were off 6.1 percent from the previous July and 30.1 percent from 2019 tallies. In part, Katz cited Penn Entertainment’s callout of “anticipated disruption from the ongoing construction and revitalization of the downtown business corridor adjacent to its Hollywood Greektown Casino.”
A slew of gambling-venue openings in Kentucky prevented apples-to-apples comparisons with 2019. However, foot traffic was up 2.5 percent from July 2024.
Black Hawk, Colorado, enjoyed a five percent boost. Katz discounted this somewhat, as the picture was clouded by the ongoing ramp-up of Monarch Casino Resorts’s mid-2022 property.
“We continue to believe regional gaming is better positioned for growth in the near term compared to Las Vegas, where expectations for the Strip are confirmed to be low until the group slate accelerates” in the final trimester of 2025,” Katz summarized.
Two companies that Katz looked to for promise were Penn Entertainment, for its newly redeveloped casinos in Illinois and Ohio, and Churchill Downs, for its new properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire. He specifically noted the recent debut of The Rose, an upcoming slot parlor in Henrico County, Virginia, and Churchill Downs’s just-obtained casino in Salem, New Hampshire.
