Casino foot traffic across the country fell 4.8% in December and is still double digits below where it was in the final month of 2019, according to the latest report from Jefferies Equities Research.
David Katz, a Jefferies analyst, said their monthly regional casino foot traffic data analysis provides insights on visitation volume in key markets domestically. It should also provide insight into revenue per visitor, which is up versus 2019.
“Overall casino foot traffic in December, which included one less weekend relative to last year, was down 4.8% year-over-year,” Katz said in a note to investors.
This month’s traffic level is neutral to slightly negative for Boyd Gaming, Churchill Downs, Caesars Entertainment, Monarch, and Penn Entertainment, Katz said.
“Additionally, compared with 2019, volume was 10.5% lower during the month, which is slightly better than November’s gap versus 2019. We anticipate trends will continue to stabilize and potentially improve in 2025, as comps have started to ease versus prior-year levels. Additionally, the Street remains on guard for the impact of macro trends on earnings levels, including higher costs for insurance, utilities, and labor, that have challenged markets unevenly.”
In December, foot traffic in Ohio and Pennsylvania was down 6.9% and down 6.8%, respectively, from 2024. In Atlantic City, December volumes were 19.2% lower than 2019 levels and 13.6% lower year-over-year. Illinois is running 17.4% lower versus 2019 and flat year-over-year.
The Illinois data isn’t inclusive of foot traffic to the new Wind Creek property, which opened in November and should have driven increased traffic levels in the Chicago market, Katz said.
“Our take is that the monthly performance reflects the ongoing normalization of traffic trends post-COVID, where volatility remains, as well as from competition and renovations in specific locations.”
Foot traffic in Detroit was up 5.8% year-over-year, while 21.6% lower than 2019. In Kentucky, several openings skew performance relative to 2019, although traffic was down 4.1% year-over-year and comparisons are seasonally driven rather than reflective of fundamental shifts, Katz said.
In December, Black Hawk’s traffic volume in Colorado was up 3.7% year-over-year.
“Likewise, we believe the comparisons provide limited insight given the strength of the new entry in the market from Monarch.”
December foot traffic declined following strong results in November, in line with the overall mixed performance operators have seen across regional markets this past year, Katz said.
Penn’s operations in regional markets, specifically in Illinois and Ohio where they operate a combined seven casinos, continue to be exposed to areas with high levels of competition.
“Boyd and Caesars generate 56% and 50% of property EBITDA in regional markets, respectively, and therefore are exposed broadly. We expect Churchill Downs to see benefits from increasing productivity of new assets in Kentucky and Virginia, more specifically we are focused on initial results from the opening of The Rose Gaming Resort in Dumfries which opened in late October. Overall, we anticipate that trends within regional gaming will continue heading into 2025.”
