An aviation consultant told Las Vegas tourism officials that airline capacity from Canada is down to its lowest levels since 2006. Canadians continue to show no desire to visit due to political discourse, and the financial woes of value airlines will continue to hamper travel to the resort destination in 2026.
Joel Van Over, a senior director at Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting, which provides data and strategies for increasing airline routes and seats to Harry Reid International Airport, told the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Board of Directors that a dropoff in Canadian travel capacity continues to impact Las Vegas visitation, with 200,000 fewer airline seats. Canadians are upset with President Donald Trump over tariff threats, and passenger numbers have shown large year-over-year declines to Las Vegas.
“Nothing could have prepared us for what was going to happen with (this) administration,” Van Over said. “Canadians have started to shy away from the United States. If you’re Canadian and doing business in the United States, you continue to travel, but if you have a choice, discretionary or leisure, you may decide to go elsewhere. We’re seeing a lot of Canadians going to Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America, Europe, Japan, and the rest of Asia. A lot of them are staying away from the United States and that impacts Las Vegas.”
In every month except one in 2024, there was an increase in the number of seats from Canada, but that reversed in 2025, Van Over said. It got bad in the first quarter, remained bad over the summer, then got worse in the winter. It ended the year down about 35% capacity, which could fall slightly more in 2026, he said. For the first quarter, Las Vegas capacity from Canadian airlines is down to its lowest level, absent the pandemic, since 2006.
“It’s going to take a while to claw back from this,” Van Over said. “It’s one year through a four-year term. Las Vegas did nothing to cause this and is definitely a recipient of the pain and destruction that has happened. We will continue to work with our Canadian partners. I know sales missions from Las Vegas continue to make overtures to Canadian visitors.”
As for overseas visitation, Las Vegas saw capacity increase every month in 2024, with a lot of demand as foreign travel on direct international flights rose 17%. In 2025, it was up in January, then fell through November. The full-year numbers won’t be out until later this year.
“We’re keeping a close eye on this, but we’re being a bit more unwelcoming to our overseas friends, whether by increasing the price of a national park pass or the visa fees,” Van Over said. “That is compounding with global rhetoric.”
Despite that, Van Over cited some good news for Las Vegas when it comes to international travel. Air France is starting non-stop service three days a week from April through January 2027.
“This is a huge win for Las Vegas,” Van Over said. “This is a premium airline, world renowned and global. They connect Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, and Asia through Paris and onward to Las Vegas. We have access to 120 markets through their hub. This helps to backfill when we don’t have Canadians coming in the summertime. Parisians and Europeans spend more and fill those critical midweek nights, an important demographic for Las Vegas.”
In discussing overall Las Vegas airline-seat capacity, Van Over said the market set a record in 2024, and almost hit that record again in 2025, but ended up being down 3.5%. The good news is it’s up substantially since 2019 and over the last decade, Las Vegas is up about eight million seats or 30%.
“This was the tale of two halves of the year,” Van Over said. “The first half, we were maintaining, if not growing a slight bit. We were anticipating declines in the second half of the year, as airlines were committed to decreasing capacity and Las Vegas saw an 8% contraction. That drove us away from setting a record in 2025.”
Besides Canadian travel being down, Van Over said a big problem is that value airlines are struggling and reducing capacity as that industry is undergoing a change.
“There are really big losses at Spirit,” Van Over said. “This airline has gone through bankruptcy twice in a single year and when they come out of bankruptcy, they’ll be half the size they were going in. They don’t have the aircraft to deploy back to Las Vegas to make up for what we lost and they were our second largest airline prior to going into bankruptcy. Frontier named a new CEO last week and their earnings are weak and could have an abrupt change in direction.”
In December, 8,200 seats a day were out of the market because of cuts by Spirit and Frontier, which impact 37 metro areas. Van Over said they have been able to backfill 50% of the capacity, but not all of that will stick, unless airlines see it pay off.
“Overall, 11 million seats came out of the domestic market from these airlines and because these airlines are part of our service portfolio, that impacted Las Vegas to about 2.2 million seats coming out with Spirit the largest of these,” Van Over said. “While losing a lot, Las Vegas gained more than one million seats from other airlines adding to the resort destination.”
There was some good news on Sunday when Allegiant Airlines announced their combining with Sun Country. That should benefit Las Vegas, especially in adding international destinations, Van Over said.
“Even after the reduction in 2025, we are the fourth-fastest-growing capacity market since 2019, and a number of markets wish they were in our place. This is definitely not a sky-is-falling narrative. Yes, fewer passengers are coming through the airport and fewer seats, but we’re still well ahead of where we were and in the top of the nation among the largest airports.”
No schedules have been published for airlines beyond March. While capacity was down 8% to end the fourth quarter, Van Over called that the floor and didn’t expect to lose a lot of capacity beyond that. Instead, Las Vegas should start to build it back, he added.
“There is still a lot to be written on the international side of the house and while there’s a lot of uncertainty, there is a lot of optimism,” Van Over said. “Delta just released their earnings today and are optimistic where they’re heading in 2026 on the premium side of the market. Las Vegas caters to that side as well. There are a lot of opportunities but we are starting from behind here.”
Las Vegas is connected to more than 170 markets globally and it’s easier than ever to get to the city, Van Over said.
“Airlines continue to make big bets on Las Vegas, with almost a million seats added last year and more coming in 2026,” Van Over said. “This number is not going to stop. We’re going to continue to get airlines betting on Las Vegas. While we were down last year (in number of seats), we were down off record levels and we almost hit that again if not for the back half of the year and the airport continues to be an incredibly busy place.”
