Investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a Monday note that it has raised its 2023 GGR and EBITDA estimates for Macau’s casino operators by 42% and 70% respectively, citing better product mix and higher margins as Chinese customers return. The bank also tips further improvement in 2024 when industry EBITDA is seen eclipsing 2019 levels thanks to the revenue mix.

According to Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary, Gareth Leung and Stephen Grambling, Macau is on track to achieve GGR of US$22 billion in 2023, enough to see industry EBITDA reach US$5.8 billion. While this is still well below the US$9.3 billion in EBITDA reported in 2019, the Morgan Stanley estimate is 30% above street consensus of US$4.5 billion. Likewise, its 2024 EBITDA estimate of US$9.6 billion – placing it above 2019 levels – is 17% higher than consensus.